# Towards a Certificate of Trust: Task-Aware OOD Detection for Scientific AI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25080 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25080/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 29 Sep 2025.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [StAD: Stein Amortized Divergence for Fast Likelihoods with Diffusion and Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16486/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Data-driven models are increasingly adopted in critical scientific fields like weather forecasting and fluid dynamics. These methods can fail on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but detecting such failures in regression tasks is an open challenge. We propose a new OOD detection method based on estimating joint likelihoods using a score-based diffusion model. This approach considers not just the input but also the regression model's prediction, providing a task-aware reliability score. Across numerous scientific datasets, including PDE datasets, satellite imagery and brain tumor segmentation, we show that this likelihood strongly correlates with prediction error. Our work provides a foundational step towards building a verifiable 'certificate of trust', thereby offering a practical tool for assessing the trustworthiness of AI-based scientific predictions. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/bogdanraonic3/OOD_Detection_ScientificML