# Assessing the risk of future Dunkelflaute events for Germany using generative deep learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24788 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24788/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

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- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Variational Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00630/) (2021)
- [Score-based Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10574/) (2023)
- [Intercomparison of Machine Learning Methods for Statistical Downscaling: The Case of Daily and Extreme Precipitation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.04018/) (2017)
- [DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models with 3D Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.11601/) (2024)
- [A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15361/) (2024)
- [Turbine location-aware multi-decadal wind power predictions for Germany using CMIP6](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.14889/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The European electricity power grid is transitioning towards renewable energy sources, characterized by an increasing share of off- and onshore wind and solar power. However, the weather dependency of these energy sources poses a challenge to grid stability, with so-called Dunkelflaute events -- periods of low wind and solar power generation -- being of particular concern due to their potential to cause electricity supply shortages. In this study, we investigate the impact of these events on the German electricity production in the years and decades to come. For this purpose, we adapt a recently developed generative deep learning framework to downscale climate simulations from the CMIP6 ensemble. We first compare their statistics to the historical record taken from ERA5 data. Next, we use these downscaled simulations to assess plausible future occurrences of Dunkelflaute events in Germany under the optimistic low (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios. Our analysis indicates that both the frequency and duration of Dunkelflaute events in Germany in the ensemble mean are projected to remain largely unchanged compared to the historical period. This suggests that, under the considered climate scenarios, the associated risk is expected to remain stable throughout the century.