# Quantile Advantage Estimation: Stabilizing RLVR for LLM Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22611 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22611/

## Key facts

- Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 33 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [Tulu 3: Pushing Frontiers in Open Language Model Post-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15124/) (2024)
- [Group Sequence Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.18071/) (2025)
- [Beyond the 80/20 Rule: High-Entropy Minority Tokens Drive Effective Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01939/) (2025)
- [SimpleRL-Zoo: Investigating and Taming Zero Reinforcement Learning for Open Base Models in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.18892/) (2025)
- [The Entropy Mechanism of Reinforcement Learning for Reasoning Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22617/) (2025)
- [Open-Reasoner-Zero: An Open Source Approach to Scaling Up Reinforcement Learning on the Base Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24290/) (2025)
- [A Theory of Regularized Markov Decision Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.11275/) (2019)
- [VAPO: Efficient and Reliable Reinforcement Learning for Advanced Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05118/) (2025)
- [Reasoning with Exploration: An Entropy Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14758/) (2025)
- [Understanding the impact of entropy on policy optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.11214/) (2018)
- [The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Entropy Minimization in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15134/) (2025)
- [The Surprising Effectiveness of Negative Reinforcement in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01347/) (2025)
- [Pass@k Training for Adaptively Balancing Exploration and Exploitation of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10751/) (2025)
- [Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards: GRPO's Effective Loss, Dynamics, and Success Amplification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.06639/) (2025)
- [β-DPO: Direct Preference Optimization with Dynamic β](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.08639/) (2024)
- [Outcome-based Exploration for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.06941/) (2025)
- [Breaking the Exploration Bottleneck: Rubric-Scaffolded Reinforcement Learning for General LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.16949/) (2025)
- [rStar2-Agent: Agentic Reasoning Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.20722/) (2025)
- [Demystifying Reasoning Dynamics with Mutual Information: Thinking Tokens are Information Peaks in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02867/) (2025)
- [Understanding Aha Moments: from External Observations to Internal Mechanisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.02956/) (2025)
- [Harnessing Uncertainty: Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients for Long-Horizon LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.09265/) (2025)
- [Asymmetric REINFORCE for off-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Balancing positive and negative rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20520/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [ContextRL: Enhancing MLLM's Knowledge Discovery Efficiency with Context-Augmented RL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.22623/) (2026)
- [V0.5: Generalist Value Model as a Prior for Sparse RL Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10848/) (2026)
- [When Sharpening Becomes Collapse: Sampling Bias and Semantic Coupling in RL with Verifiable Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15609/) (2026)
- [QUATRO: Query-Adaptive Trust Region Policy Optimization for LLM Fine-tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.04620/) (2026)
- [Experience Augmented Policy Optimization for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30420/) (2026)
- [MCPO: Mastery-Consolidated Policy Optimization for Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.16972/) (2026)
- [GAPO: Robust Advantage Estimation for Real-World Code LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21830/) (2025)
- [Rethinking Reinforcement fine-tuning of LLMs: A Multi-armed Bandit Learning Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.14599/) (2026)
- [EAPO: Entropy-Driven Adaptive Positive-Negative Sample Weighting for Policy Optimization in Open-Ended QA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27846/) (2026)
- [Spurious Advantage Hidden in GRPO](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.04063/) (2026)
- [Stable-MM-R1: Anchoring Multimodal Reasoning Dynamics via Entropy-Guided Stratification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.07148/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.