# Think Right, Not More: Test-Time Scaling for Numerical Claim Verification

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.22101 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22101/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 35 of its 63 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-benchmarks-and-evaluation/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 35)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Search-R1: Training LLMs to Reason and Leverage Search Engines with Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09516/) (2025)
- [When Not to Trust Language Models: Investigating Effectiveness of Parametric and Non-Parametric Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10511/) (2022)
- [STaR: Bootstrapping Reasoning With Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.14465/) (2022)
- [Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08935/) (2023)
- [Solving math word problems with process- and outcome-based feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14275/) (2022)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [Adaptive-RAG: Learning to Adapt Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models through Question Complexity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14403/) (2024)
- [Beyond Human Data: Scaling Self-Training for Problem-Solving with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06585/) (2023)
- [Alphazero-like Tree-Search can Guide Large Language Model Decoding and Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17179/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24235/) (2025)
- [Explainable Automated Fact-Checking for Public Health Claims](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.09926/) (2020)
- [CLIMATE-FEVER: A Dataset for Verification of Real-World Climate Claims](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00614/) (2020)
- [Self-Evaluation Guided Beam Search for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00633/) (2023)
- [The Danger of Overthinking: Examining the Reasoning-Action Dilemma in Agentic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08235/) (2025)
- [AVeriTeC: A Dataset for Real-world Claim Verification with Evidence from the Web](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13117/) (2023)
- [Generating Scientific Claims for Zero-Shot Scientific Fact Checking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12990/) (2022)
- [Scientific Fact-Checking: A Survey of Resources and Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16859/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [The CLEF-2026 CheckThat! Lab: Advancing Multilingual Fact-Checking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.09516/) (2026)
- [Symbolic Augmentation Closes a Canonical-Equivalence Blind Spot in Neural Fact-Checkers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.16212/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Fact-checking real-world claims, particularly numerical claims, is inherently complex that require multistep reasoning and numerical reasoning for verifying diverse aspects of the claim. Although large language models (LLMs) including reasoning models have made tremendous advances, they still fall short on fact-checking real-world claims that require a combination of compositional and numerical reasoning. They are unable to understand nuance of numerical aspects, and are also susceptible to the reasoning drift issue, where the model is unable to contextualize diverse information resulting in misinterpretation and backtracking of reasoning process. In this work, we systematically explore scaling test-time compute (TTS) for LLMs on the task of fact-checking complex numerical claims, which entails eliciting multiple reasoning paths from an LLM. We train a verifier model (VERIFIERFC) to navigate this space of possible reasoning paths and select one that could lead to the correct verdict. We observe that TTS helps mitigate the reasoning drift issue, leading to significant performance gains for fact-checking numerical claims. To improve compute efficiency in TTS, we introduce an adaptive mechanism that performs TTS selectively based on the perceived complexity of the claim. This approach achieves 1.8x higher efficiency than standard TTS, while delivering a notable 18.8% performance improvement over single-shot claim verification methods. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/VenkteshV/VerifierFC