# Developer Productivity With and Without GitHub Copilot: A Longitudinal Mixed-Methods Case Study

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.20353 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.20353/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 24 Sep 2025.

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Speed at the Cost of Quality: How Cursor AI Increases Short-Term Velocity and Long-Term Complexity in Open-Source Projects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04427/) (2025)
- [Agentic AI in Industry: Adoption Level and Deployment Barriers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14675/) (2026)
- [The State of Generative AI in Software Development: Insights from Literature and a Developer Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.16975/) (2026)
- [Adoption and Impact of Command-Line AI Coding Agents: A Study of Microsoft's Early 2026 Rollout of Claude Code and GitHub Copilot CLI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.01418/) (2026)
- [Obey, Diverge, Collapse: Blind Obedience to Incorrect Instructions Drives Code LLMs to Irrecoverable Code Semantic Collapse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.04537/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study investigates the real-world impact of the generative AI (GenAI) tool GitHub Copilot on developer activity and perceived productivity. We conducted a mixed-methods case study in NAV IT, a large public sector agile organization. We analyzed 26,317 unique non-merge commits from 703 of NAV IT's GitHub repositories over a two-year period, focusing on commit-based activity metrics from 25 Copilot users and 14 non-users. The analysis was complemented by survey responses on their roles and perceived productivity, as well as 13 interviews. Our analysis of activity metrics revealed that individuals who used Copilot were consistently more active than non-users, even prior to Copilot's introduction. We did not find any statistically significant changes in commit-based activity for Copilot users after they adopted the tool, although minor increases were observed. This suggests a discrepancy between changes in commit-based metrics and the subjective experience of productivity.