# Discovering strategies for coastal resilience with AI-based prediction and optimization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.19263 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.19263/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02531/) (2015)
- [Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08895/) (2020)
- [Neural Tangent Kernel: Convergence and Generalization in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07572/) (2018)
- [SwinIR: Image Restoration Using Swin Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.10257/) (2021)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [PDE-Refiner: Achieving Accurate Long Rollouts with Neural PDE Solvers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05732/) (2023)
- [Sample-Then-Optimize Batch Neural Thompson Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06850/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Tropical storms cause extensive property damage and loss of life, making them one of the most destructive types of natural hazards. The development of predictive models that identify interventions effective at mitigating storm impacts has considerable potential to reduce these adverse outcomes. In this study, we use an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approach for optimizing intervention schemes that improve resilience to coastal flooding. We combine three different AI models to optimize the selection of intervention types, sites, and scales in order to minimize the expected cost of flooding damage in a given region, including the cost of installing and maintaining interventions. Our approach combines data-driven generation of storm surge fields, surrogate modeling of intervention impacts, and the solving of a continuous-armed bandit problem. We applied this methodology to optimize the selection of sea wall and oyster reef interventions near Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, an area that was catastrophically impacted by Hurricane Michael. Our analysis predicts that intervention optimization could be used to potentially save billions of dollars in storm damage, far outpacing greedy or non-optimal solutions.