# Copycat vs. Original: Multi-modal Pretraining and Variable Importance in Box-office Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.15277 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15277/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 25 of its 62 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08485/) (2023)
- [Mask R-CNN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06870/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [BLIP: Bootstrapping Language-Image Pre-training for Unified Vision-Language Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12086/) (2022)
- [Fast R-CNN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.08083/) (2015)
- [ViLBERT: Pretraining Task-Agnostic Visiolinguistic Representations for Vision-and-Language Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.02265/) (2019)
- [Enriching Word Vectors with Subword Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.04606/) (2016)
- [LXMERT: Learning Cross-Modality Encoder Representations from Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07490/) (2019)
- [VL-BERT: Pre-training of Generic Visual-Linguistic Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.08530/) (2019)
- [Attention is not Explanation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10186/) (2019)
- [Quantifying Attention Flow in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00928/) (2020)
- [Attention is not not Explanation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.04626/) (2019)
- [End-to-End Learning of Visual Representations from Uncurated Instructional Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.06430/) (2019)
- [Long-CLIP: Unlocking the Long-Text Capability of CLIP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.15378/) (2024)
- [Pixel-BERT: Aligning Image Pixels with Text by Deep Multi-Modal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.00849/) (2020)
- [Vokenization: Improving Language Understanding with Contextualized, Visual-Grounded Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.06775/) (2020)
- [Attention Interpretability Across NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.11218/) (2019)
- [Things not Written in Text: Exploring Spatial Commonsense from Visual Signals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.08075/) (2022)
- [Imagination-Augmented Natural Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08535/) (2022)
- [Z-LaVI: Zero-Shot Language Solver Fueled by Visual Imagination](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.12261/) (2022)
- [NumGPT: Improving Numeracy Ability of Generative Pre-trained Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.03137/) (2021)
- [Early Predictions of Movie Success: the Who, What, and When of Profitability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.05382/) (2015)
- [Initialization Matters: Regularizing Manifold-informed Initialization for Neural Recommendation Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04993/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The movie industry is associated with an elevated level of risk, which necessitates the use of automated tools to predict box-office revenue and facilitate human decision-making. In this study, we build a sophisticated multimodal neural network that predicts box offices by grounding crowdsourced descriptive keywords of each movie in the visual information of the movie posters, thereby enhancing the learned keyword representations, resulting in a substantial reduction of 14.5% in box-office prediction error. The advanced revenue prediction model enables the analysis of the commercial viability of "copycat movies," or movies with substantial similarity to successful movies released recently. We do so by computing the influence of copycat features in box-office prediction. We find a positive relationship between copycat status and movie revenue. However, this effect diminishes when the number of similar movies and the similarity of their content increase. Overall, our work develops sophisticated deep learning tools for studying the movie industry and provides valuable business insight.