# WatchAnxiety: A Transfer Learning Approach for State Anxiety Prediction from Smartwatch Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13725 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13725/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [TILES-2018, a longitudinal physiologic and behavioral data set of hospital workers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.08474/) (2020)
- [Understanding State Social Anxiety in Virtual Social Interactions using Multimodal Wearable Sensing Indicators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15637/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Social anxiety is a common mental health condition linked to significant challenges in academic, social, and occupational functioning. A core feature is elevated momentary (state) anxiety in social situations, yet little prior work has measured or predicted fluctuations in this anxiety throughout the day. Capturing these intra-day dynamics is critical for designing real-time, personalized interventions such as Just-In-Time Adaptive Interventions (JITAIs). To address this gap, we conducted a study with socially anxious college students (N=91; 72 after exclusions) using our custom smartwatch-based system over an average of 9.03 days (SD = 2.95). Participants received seven ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) per day to report state anxiety. We developed a base model on over 10,000 days of external heart rate data, transferred its representations to our dataset, and fine-tuned it to generate probabilistic predictions. These were combined with trait-level measures in a meta-learner. Our pipeline achieved 60.4% balanced accuracy in state anxiety detection in our dataset. To evaluate generalizability, we applied the training approach to a separate hold-out set from the TILES-18 dataset-the same dataset used for pretraining. On 10,095 once-daily EMAs, our method achieved 59.1% balanced accuracy, outperforming prior work by at least 7%.