# C3DE: Causal-Aware Collaborative Neural Controlled Differential Equation for Long-Term Urban Crowd Flow Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12289 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.12289/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Irregular Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08926/) (2020)
- [Gate-Variants of Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.05923/) (2017)
- [Spatial-Temporal Graph ODE Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12931/) (2021)
- [Counterfactual Data Augmentation for Mitigating Gender Stereotypes in Languages with Rich Morphology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04571/) (2019)
- [PDFormer: Propagation Delay-Aware Dynamic Long-Range Transformer for Traffic Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07945/) (2023)
- [Graph Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03558/) (2021)
- [Decoupled Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.09112/) (2022)
- [Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Dynamic Graph Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08408/) (2022)
- [Learning Continuous System Dynamics from Irregularly-Sampled Partial Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.03880/) (2020)
- [DSformer: A Double Sampling Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Long-term Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03274/) (2023)
- [Human Trajectory Prediction via Counterfactual Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.14202/) (2021)
- [Unveiling Delay Effects in Traffic Forecasting: A Perspective from Spatial-Temporal Delay Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01231/) (2024)
- [Temporal Graph ODEs for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19508/) (2024)
- [Frequency Enhanced Pre-training for Cross-city Few-shot Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02614/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Long-term urban crowd flow prediction suffers significantly from cumulative sampling errors, due to increased sequence lengths and sampling intervals, which inspired us to leverage Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) to mitigate this issue. However, regarding the crucial influence of Points of Interest (POIs) evolution on long-term crowd flow, the multi-timescale asynchronous dynamics between crowd flow and POI distribution, coupled with latent spurious causality, poses challenges to applying NCDEs for long-term urban crowd flow prediction. To this end, we propose Causal-aware Collaborative neural CDE (C3DE) to model the long-term dynamic of crowd flow. Specifically, we introduce a dual-path NCDE as the backbone to effectively capture the asynchronous evolution of collaborative signals across multiple time scales. Then, we design a dynamic correction mechanism with the counterfactual-based causal effect estimator to quantify the causal impact of POIs on crowd flow and minimize the accumulation of spurious correlations. Finally, we leverage a predictor for long-term prediction with the fused collaborative signals of POI and crowd flow. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of C3DE, particularly in cities with notable flow fluctuations.