# Large Foundation Models for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving: A Comprehensive Survey

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10570 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.10570/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Large language models for driving, one of 9 directions in End-to-end autonomous driving.
- Builds on 110 of its 163 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Sep 2025.

## Placed in

- End-to-end autonomous driving / [Large language models for driving](https://mlsanity.com/driving/large-language-models-for-driving/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 110)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Improved Baselines with Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03744/) (2023)
- [Scalability in Perception for Autonomous Driving: Waymo Open Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04838/) (2019)
- [Planning-oriented Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10156/) (2022)
- [Open Problems and Fundamental Limitations of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15217/) (2023)
- [Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02620/) (2019)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Bias and Fairness in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.00770/) (2023)
- [GAIA-1: A Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17080/) (2023)
- [VAD: Vectorized Scene Representation for Efficient Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12077/) (2023)
- [DriveLM: Driving with Graph Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14150/) (2023)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [NuPlan: A closed-loop ML-based planning benchmark for autonomous vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11810/) (2021)
- [End-to-end Autonomous Driving: Challenges and Frontiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.16927/) (2023)
- [DriveVLM: The Convergence of Autonomous Driving and Large Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12289/) (2024)
- [DriveGPT4: Interpretable End-to-end Autonomous Driving via Large Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01412/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Autonomous Driving: Common Practices and Emerging Technologies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05113/) (2019)
- [GPT-Driver: Learning to Drive with GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01415/) (2023)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11927/) (2020)
- [V2X-ViT: Vehicle-to-Everything Cooperative Perception with Vision Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10638/) (2022)
- [LMDrive: Closed-Loop End-to-End Driving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.07488/) (2023)
- [Towards Large Reasoning Models: A Survey of Reinforced Reasoning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.09686/) (2025)
- [The highD Dataset: A Drone Dataset of Naturalistic Vehicle Trajectories on German Highways for Validation of Highly Automated Driving Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.05642/) (2018)
- [AutoVLA: A Vision-Language-Action Model for End-to-End Autonomous Driving with Adaptive Reasoning and Reinforcement Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13757/) (2025)
- [Trajectory-guided Control Prediction for End-to-end Autonomous Driving: A Simple yet Strong Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.08129/) (2022)
- [Is Ego Status All You Need for Open-Loop End-to-End Autonomous Driving?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03031/) (2023)
- [It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.02025/) (2020)
- [DriveMLM: Aligning Multi-Modal Large Language Models with Behavioral Planning States for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09245/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [RoadSceneVQA: Benchmarking Visual Question Answering in Roadside Perception Systems for Intelligent Transportation System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.18286/) (2025)
- [Addressing Corner Cases in Autonomous Driving: A World Model-based Approach with Mixture of Experts and LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21867/) (2025)
- [Industrial Kinematic Trajectory Model (IKTM): Coordinate-Free Autoregressive Generator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22173/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Trajectory prediction serves as a critical functionality in autonomous driving, enabling the anticipation of future motion paths for traffic participants such as vehicles and pedestrians, which is essential for driving safety. Although conventional deep learning methods have improved accuracy, they remain hindered by inherent limitations, including lack of interpretability, heavy reliance on large-scale annotated data, and weak generalization in long-tail scenarios. The rise of Large Foundation Models (LFMs) is transforming the research paradigm of trajectory prediction. This survey offers a systematic review of recent advances in LFMs, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) for trajectory prediction. By integrating linguistic and scene semantics, LFMs facilitate interpretable contextual reasoning, significantly enhancing prediction safety and generalization in complex environments. The article highlights three core methodologies: trajectory-language mapping, multimodal fusion, and constraint-based reasoning. It covers prediction tasks for both vehicles and pedestrians, evaluation metrics, and dataset analyses. Key challenges such as computational latency, data scarcity, and real-world robustness are discussed, along with future research directions including low-latency inference, causality-aware modeling, and motion foundation models.