# FinZero: Launching Multi-modal Financial Time Series Forecast with Large Reasoning Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.08742 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.08742/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 18 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Sep 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning for agents, planning and code](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-for-agents-planning-and-code/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08073/) (2022)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [MM-Eureka: Exploring the Frontiers of Multimodal Reasoning with Rule-based Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07365/) (2025)
- [Logic-RL: Unleashing LLM Reasoning with Rule-Based Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14768/) (2025)
- [LMM-R1: Empowering 3B LMMs with Strong Reasoning Abilities Through Two-Stage Rule-Based RL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07536/) (2025)
- [TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04948/) (2023)
- [Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16964/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty Estimation Methods on Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00172/) (2025)
- [Soft Contrastive Learning for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.16424/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [FinSTaR: Towards Financial Reasoning with Time Series Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.03460/) (2026)
- [News-Aware Direct Reinforcement Trading for Financial Markets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.19173/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Financial time series forecasting is both highly significant and challenging. Previous approaches typically standardized time series data before feeding it into forecasting models, but this encoding process inherently leads to a loss of important information. Moreover, past time series models generally require fixed numbers of variables or lookback window lengths, which further limits the scalability of time series forecasting. Besides, the interpretability and the uncertainty in forecasting remain areas requiring further research, as these factors directly impact the reliability and practical value of predictions. To address these issues, we first construct a diverse financial image-text dataset (FVLDB) and develop the Uncertainty-adjusted Group Relative Policy Optimization (UARPO) method to enable the model not only output predictions but also analyze the uncertainty of those predictions. We then proposed FinZero, a multimodal pre-trained model finetuned by UARPO to perform reasoning, prediction, and analytical understanding on the FVLDB financial time series. Extensive experiments validate that FinZero exhibits strong adaptability and scalability. After fine-tuning with UARPO, FinZero achieves an approximate 13.48% improvement in prediction accuracy over GPT-4o in the high-confidence group, demonstrating the effectiveness of reinforcement learning fine-tuning in multimodal large model, including in financial time series forecasting tasks.