# Probabilistic Modeling of Latent Agentic Substructures in Deep Neural Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.06701 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.06701/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 30 of its 85 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Sep 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/agents/general-llm-agent-frameworks-and-benchmarks/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 30)

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- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attacks on Aligned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15043/) (2023)
- [Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08073/) (2022)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Jailbroken: How Does LLM Safety Training Fail?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.02483/) (2023)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [Llama Guard: LLM-based Input-Output Safeguard for Human-AI Conversations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06674/) (2023)
- [A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory for Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.00861/) (2021)
- [Red Teaming Language Models with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03286/) (2022)
- [Constrained Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.10528/) (2017)
- [Ethical and social risks of harm from Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.04359/) (2021)
- [Red Teaming Language Models to Reduce Harms: Methods, Scaling Behaviors, and Lessons Learned](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.07858/) (2022)
- [DetectGPT: Zero-Shot Machine-Generated Text Detection using Probability Curvature](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11305/) (2023)
- [Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05566/) (2024)
- [Toxicity in ChatGPT: Analyzing Persona-assigned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05335/) (2023)
- [Alignment faking in large language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14093/) (2024)
- [Fast-DetectGPT: Efficient Zero-Shot Detection of Machine-Generated Text via Conditional Probability Curvature](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05130/) (2023)
- [Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04984/) (2024)
- [The Alignment Problem from a Deep Learning Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00626/) (2022)
- [Scalable and Transferable Black-Box Jailbreaks for Language Models via Persona Modulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03348/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07590/) (2023)
- [Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01683/) (2019)
- [The Off-Switch Game](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.08219/) (2016)
- [Active inference on discrete state-spaces: a synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.07203/) (2020)
- [The free energy principle for action and perception: A mathematical review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.09156/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We develop a theory of intelligent agency grounded in probabilistic modeling for neural models. Agents are represented as outcome distributions with epistemic utility given by log score, and compositions are defined through weighted logarithmic pooling that strictly improves every member's welfare. We prove that strict unanimity is impossible under linear pooling or in binary outcome spaces, but possible with three or more outcomes. Our framework admits recursive structure via cloning invariance, continuity, and openness, while tilt-based analysis rules out trivial duplication. Finally, we formalize an agentic alignment phenomenon in LLMs using our theory: eliciting a benevolent persona ("Luigi'") induces an antagonistic counterpart ("Waluigi"), while a manifest-then-suppress Waluigi strategy yields strictly larger first-order misalignment reduction than pure Luigi reinforcement alone. These results clarify how developing a principled mathematical framework for how subagents can coalesce into coherent higher-level entities provides novel implications for alignment in agentic AI systems.