# Mapping like a Skeptic: Probabilistic BEV Projection for Online HD Mapping

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21689 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.21689/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [End-to-End Object Detection with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.12872/) (2020)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [BEVFormer: Learning Bird's-Eye-View Representation from Multi-Camera Images via Spatiotemporal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17270/) (2022)
- [Lift, Splat, Shoot: Encoding Images From Arbitrary Camera Rigs by Implicitly Unprojecting to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05711/) (2020)
- [Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00493/) (2023)
- [Exploring Object-Centric Temporal Modeling for Efficient Multi-View 3D Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11926/) (2023)
- [MapTR: Structured Modeling and Learning for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.14437/) (2022)
- [HDMapNet: An Online HD Map Construction and Evaluation Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06307/) (2021)
- [Cross-view Transformers for real-time Map-view Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.02833/) (2022)
- [VectorMapNet: End-to-end Vectorized HD Map Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.08920/) (2022)
- [MapTRv2: An End-to-End Framework for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05736/) (2023)
- [StreamMapNet: Streaming Mapping Network for Vectorized Online HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12570/) (2023)
- [Simple-BEV: What Really Matters for Multi-Sensor BEV Perception?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07959/) (2022)
- [PivotNet: Vectorized Pivot Learning for End-to-end HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.16477/) (2023)
- [End-to-End Vectorized HD-map Construction with Piecewise Bezier Curve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09700/) (2023)
- [BEVPoolv2: A Cutting-edge Implementation of BEVDet Toward Deployment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.17111/) (2022)
- [Efficient and Robust 2D-to-BEV Representation Learning via Geometry-guided Kernel Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04584/) (2022)
- [MapTracker: Tracking with Strided Memory Fusion for Consistent Vector HD Mapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.15951/) (2024)
- [Exploring Recurrent Long-term Temporal Fusion for Multi-view 3D Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.05970/) (2023)
- [MGMap: Mask-Guided Learning for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.00876/) (2024)
- [HIMap: HybrId Representation Learning for End-to-end Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08639/) (2024)
- [Leveraging Enhanced Queries of Point Sets for Vectorized Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17430/) (2024)
- [Stream Query Denoising for Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.09112/) (2024)
- [Online Vectorized HD Map Construction using Geometry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03341/) (2023)
- [Mask2Map: Vectorized HD Map Construction Using Bird's Eye View Segmentation Masks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13517/) (2024)
- [PointBeV: A Sparse Approach to BeV Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00703/) (2023)
- [InsMapper: Exploring Inner-instance Information for Vectorized HD Mapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08543/) (2023)
- [PrevPredMap: Exploring Temporal Modeling with Previous Predictions for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.17378/) (2024)
- [Unveiling the Hidden: Online Vectorized HD Map Construction with Clip-Level Token Interaction and Propagation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.11002/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [The Road Ahead in Autonomous Driving: The KITScenes Multimodal Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.02956/) (2026)
- [Multimodal Action Diffusion for Robust End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.02105/) (2026)
- [Creating Impactful Autonomous Driving Datasets: A Strategic Guide from Research Gap to Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.00710/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Constructing high-definition (HD) maps from sensory input requires accurately mapping the road elements in image space to the Bird's Eye View (BEV) space. The precision of this mapping directly impacts the quality of the final vectorized HD map. Existing HD mapping approaches outsource the projection to standard mapping techniques, such as attention-based ones. However, these methods struggle with accuracy due to generalization problems, often hallucinating non-existent road elements. Our key idea is to start with a geometric mapping based on camera parameters and adapt it to the scene to extract relevant map information from camera images. To implement this, we propose a novel probabilistic projection mechanism with confidence scores to (i) refine the mapping to better align with the scene and (ii) filter out irrelevant elements that should not influence HD map generation. In addition, we improve temporal processing by using confidence scores to selectively accumulate reliable information over time. Experiments on new splits of the nuScenes and Argoverse2 datasets demonstrate improved performance over state-of-the-art approaches, indicating better generalization. The improvements are particularly pronounced on nuScenes and in the challenging long perception range. Our code and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/Fatih-Erdogan/mapping-like-skeptic .