# Predicting Social Media Engagement from Emotional and Temporal Features

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21650 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.21650/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 11 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Virality Prediction and Community Structure in Social Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1306.0158/) (2013)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We present a machine learning approach for predicting social media engagement (comments and likes) from emotional and temporal features. The dataset contains 600 songs with annotations for valence, arousal, and related sentiment metrics. A multi target regression model based on HistGradientBoostingRegressor is trained on log transformed engagement ratios to address skewed targets. Performance is evaluated with both a custom order of magnitude accuracy and standard regression metrics, including the coefficient of determination (R^2). Results show that emotional and temporal metadata, together with existing view counts, predict future engagement effectively. The model attains R^2 = 0.98 for likes but only R^2 = 0.41 for comments. This gap indicates that likes are largely driven by readily captured affective and exposure signals, whereas comments depend on additional factors not represented in the current feature set.