# Stage-Diff: Stage-wise Long-Term Time Series Generation Based on Diffusion Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21330 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.21330/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 22 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Aug 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [DiffWave: A Versatile Diffusion Model for Audio Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09761/) (2020)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [A Transformer-based Framework for Multivariate Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02803/) (2020)
- [Diffusion-TS: Interpretable Diffusion for General Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01742/) (2024)
- [TimeVAE: A Variational Auto-Encoder for Multivariate Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.08095/) (2021)
- [C-RNN-GAN: Continuous recurrent neural networks with adversarial training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.09904/) (2016)
- [DiffiT: Diffusion Vision Transformers for Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02139/) (2023)
- [Generative Time Series Forecasting with Diffusion, Denoise, and Disentanglement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.03028/) (2023)
- [PSA-GAN: Progressive Self Attention GANs for Synthetic Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00981/) (2021)
- [Causal Recurrent Variational Autoencoder for Medical Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.06574/) (2023)
- [GT-GAN: General Purpose Time Series Synthesis with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02040/) (2022)
- [Generating Synthetic but Plausible Healthcare Record Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.01514/) (2018)
- [SageFormer: Series-Aware Framework for Long-term Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01616/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [WaveletDiff: Multilevel Wavelet Diffusion For Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11839/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Generative models have been successfully used in the field of time series generation. However, when dealing with long-term time series, which span over extended periods and exhibit more complex long-term temporal patterns, the task of generation becomes significantly more challenging. Long-term time series exhibit long-range temporal dependencies, but their data distribution also undergoes gradual changes over time. Finding a balance between these long-term dependencies and the drift in data distribution is a key challenge. On the other hand, long-term time series contain more complex interrelationships between different feature sequences, making the task of effectively capturing both intra-sequence and inter-sequence dependencies another important challenge. To address these issues, we propose Stage-Diff, a staged generative model for long-term time series based on diffusion models. First, through stage-wise sequence generation and inter-stage information transfer, the model preserves long-term sequence dependencies while enabling the modeling of data distribution shifts. Second, within each stage, progressive sequence decomposition is applied to perform channel-independent modeling at different time scales, while inter-stage information transfer utilizes multi-channel fusion modeling. This approach combines the robustness of channel-independent modeling with the information fusion advantages of multi-channel modeling, effectively balancing the intra-sequence and inter-sequence dependencies of long-term time series. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of Stage-Diff in long-term time series generation tasks.