# PAX-TS: Model-agnostic multi-granular explanations for time series forecasting via localized perturbations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.18982 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18982/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [Multilevel Wavelet Decomposition Network for Interpretable Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.08946/) (2018)
- [SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11200/) (2023)
- [TS-MULE: Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations for Time Series Forecast Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.08438/) (2021)
- [Time-Series Foundation Models for Forecasting Soil Moisture Levels in Smart Agriculture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18913/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [TelcoAgent: A Scalable 5G Multi-KPM Forecasting With 3GPP-Grounded Explainability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19821/) (2026)
- [Software Frameworks for Explainable AI in Time Series Classification: A Systematic Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.21449/) (2026)
- [A Hilbert-Valued Functional Decomposition Framework for Explaining Time-Dependent Outputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.11295/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time series forecasting has seen considerable improvement during the last years, with transformer models and large language models driving advancements of the state of the art. Modern forecasting models are generally opaque and do not provide explanations for their forecasts, while well-known post-hoc explainability methods like LIME are not suitable for the forecasting context. We propose PAX-TS, a model-agnostic post-hoc algorithm to explain time series forecasting models and their forecasts. Our method is based on localized input perturbations and results in multi-granular explanations. Further, it is able to characterize cross-channel correlations for multivariate time series forecasts. We clearly outline the algorithmic procedure behind PAX-TS, demonstrate it on a benchmark with 7 algorithms and 10 diverse datasets, compare it with two other state-of-the-art explanation algorithms, and present the different explanation types of the method. We found that the explanations of high-performing and low-performing algorithms differ on the same datasets, highlighting that the explanations of PAX-TS effectively capture a model's behavior. Based on time step correlation matrices resulting from the benchmark, we identify 6 classes of patterns that repeatedly occur across different datasets and algorithms. We found that the patterns are indicators of performance, with noticeable differences in forecasting error between the classes. Lastly, we outline a multivariate example where PAX-TS demonstrates how the forecasting model takes cross-channel correlations into account. With PAX-TS, time series forecasting models' mechanisms can be illustrated in different levels of detail, and its explanations can be used to answer practical questions on forecasts.