# HierCVAE: Hierarchical Attention-Driven Conditional Variational Autoencoders for Multi-Scale Temporal Modeling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.18922 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18922/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Optimization Methods for Large-Scale Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.04838/) (2016)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [GP-VAE: Deep Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.04155/) (2019)
- [TimeVAE: A Variational Auto-Encoder for Multivariate Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.08095/) (2021)
- [TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03528/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Temporal modeling in complex systems requires capturing dependencies across multiple time scales while managing inherent uncertainties. We propose HierCVAE, a novel architecture that integrates hierarchical attention mechanisms with conditional variational autoencoders to address these challenges. HierCVAE employs a three-tier attention structure (local, global, cross-temporal) combined with multi-modal condition encoding to capture temporal, statistical, and trend information. The approach incorporates ResFormer blocks in the latent space and provides explicit uncertainty quantification via prediction heads. Through evaluations on energy consumption datasets, HierCVAE demonstrates a 15-40% improvement in prediction accuracy and superior uncertainty calibration compared to state-of-the-art methods, excelling in long-term forecasting and complex multi-variate dependencies.