# Evaluating Federated Learning for At-Risk Student Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of Model Complexity and Data Balancing

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.18316 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18316/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05629/) (2016)
- [Mitigating Biases in Student Performance Prediction via Attention-Based Personalized Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01182/) (2022)
- [A Robust Pipeline for Differentially Private Federated Learning on Imbalanced Clinical Data using SMOTETomek and FedProx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10017/) (2025)
- [Personalized Federated Learning with Adaptive Feature Aggregation and Knowledge Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.15073/) (2024)
- [Ranking-Based At-Risk Student Prediction Using Federated Learning and Differential Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09287/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study proposes and validates a Federated Learning (FL) framework to proactively identify at-risk students while preserving data privacy. Persistently high dropout rates in distance education remain a pressing institutional challenge. Using the large-scale OULAD dataset, we simulate a privacy-centric scenario where models are trained on early academic performance and digital engagement patterns. Our work investigates the practical trade-offs between model complexity (Logistic Regression vs. a Deep Neural Network) and the impact of local data balancing. The resulting federated model achieves strong predictive power (ROC AUC approximately 85%), demonstrating that FL is a practical and scalable solution for early-warning systems that inherently respects student data sovereignty.