# Longitudinal Progression Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease with Tabular Foundation Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.17649 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.17649/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 12 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01848/) (2022)
- [TADPOLE Challenge: Accurate Alzheimer's disease prediction through crowdsourced forecasting of future data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.09016/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [TabPFN-2.5: Advancing the State of the Art in Tabular Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.08667/) (2025)
- [Beyond IID: How General Are Tabular Foundation Models, Really?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30410/) (2026)
- [TabPFN-3: Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.13986/) (2026)
- [Retrieval-aligned Tabular Foundation Models Enable Robust Clinical Risk Prediction in Electronic Health Records Under Real-world Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.01841/) (2026)
- [Multilingual Cognitive Impairment Detection in the Era of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.06758/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Alzheimer's disease is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that remains challenging to predict due to its multifactorial etiology and the complexity of multimodal clinical data. Accurate forecasting of clinically relevant biomarkers, including diagnostic and quantitative measures, is essential for effective monitoring of disease progression. This work introduces L2C-TabPFN, a method that integrates a longitudinal-to-cross-sectional (L2C) transformation with a pre-trained Tabular Foundation Model (TabPFN) to predict Alzheimer's disease outcomes using the TADPOLE dataset. L2C-TabPFN converts sequential patient records into fixed-length feature vectors, enabling robust prediction of diagnosis, cognitive scores, and ventricular volume. Experimental results demonstrate that, while L2C-TabPFN achieves competitive performance on diagnostic and cognitive outcomes, it provides state-of-the-art results in ventricular volume prediction. This key imaging biomarker reflects neurodegeneration and progression in Alzheimer's disease. These findings highlight the potential of tabular foundational models for advancing longitudinal prediction of clinically relevant imaging markers in Alzheimer's disease.