# The Evolution of Thought: Tracking LLM Overthinking via Reasoning Dynamics Analysis

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.17627 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.17627/

## Key facts

- Cited by 18 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 29 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Aug 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 29 of 29)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Qwen3 Embedding: Advancing Text Embedding and Reranking Through Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05176/) (2025)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [Training Large Language Models to Reason in a Continuous Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06769/) (2024)
- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [L1: Controlling How Long A Reasoning Model Thinks With Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.04697/) (2025)
- [O1-Pruner: Length-Harmonizing Fine-Tuning for O1-Like Reasoning Pruning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12570/) (2025)
- [TokenSkip: Controllable Chain-of-Thought Compression in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12067/) (2025)
- [Token-Budget-Aware LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.18547/) (2024)
- [CODI: Compressing Chain-of-Thought into Continuous Space via Self-Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.21074/) (2025)
- [Dynamic Early Exit in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15895/) (2025)
- [Compressed Chain of Thought: Efficient Reasoning Through Dense Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.13171/) (2024)
- [When More is Less: Understanding Chain-of-Thought Length in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07266/) (2025)
- [CoT-Valve: Length-Compressible Chain-of-Thought Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.09601/) (2025)
- [Distilling System 2 into System 1](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.06023/) (2024)
- [Between Underthinking and Overthinking: An Empirical Study of Reasoning Length and correctness in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.00127/) (2025)
- [How Well do LLMs Compress Their Own Chain-of-Thought? A Token Complexity Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01141/) (2025)
- [S-GRPO: Early Exit via Reinforcement Learning in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.07686/) (2025)
- [Does Thinking More always Help? Mirage of Test-Time Scaling in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04210/) (2025)
- [Harnessing the Reasoning Economy: A Survey of Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24377/) (2025)
- [THOUGHTTERMINATOR: Benchmarking, Calibrating, and Mitigating Overthinking in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13367/) (2025)
- [Efficient Reasoning for Large Reasoning Language Models via Certainty-Guided Reflection Suppression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.05337/) (2025)
- [Revisiting Overthinking in Long Chain-of-Thought from the Perspective of Self-Doubt](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23480/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [When to Reason: Semantic Router for vLLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08731/) (2025)
- [Conformal Thinking: Risk Control for Reasoning on a Compute Budget](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03814/) (2026)
- [Latent-GRPO: Group Relative Policy Optimization for Latent Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.27998/) (2026)
- [ATTNPO: Attention-Guided Process Supervision for Efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.09953/) (2026)
- [Prioritize the Process, Not Just the Outcome: Rewarding Latent Thought Trajectories Improves Reasoning in Looped Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10520/) (2026)
- [Stop When Reasoning Converges: Semantic-Preserving Early Exit for Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.17672/) (2026)
- [Early Stopping for Large Reasoning Models via Confidence Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.04930/) (2026)
- [Circular Reasoning: Understanding Self-Reinforcing Loops in Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.05693/) (2026)
- [ESTAR: Early-Stopping Token-Aware Reasoning For Efficient Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10004/) (2026)
- [SliceGraph: Mapping Process Isomers in Multi-Run Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14619/) (2026)
- [The Shape of Overthinking: Backtracking Bursts in Long Reasoning Traces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27965/) (2026)
- [Batch Prompting Suppresses Overthinking Reasoning Under Constraint: How Batch Prompting Suppresses Overthinking in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04108/) (2025)
- [STOP: Structured On-Policy Pruning of Long-Form Reasoning in Low-Data Regimes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.13165/) (2026)
- [SLAT: Segment-Level Adaptive Trimming for Efficient CoT Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.30832/) (2026)
- [Dynamic Rollout Editing for Reducing Overthinking in RL-Trained Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.17890/) (2026)
- [CUSUM-Shaped Inference-Time Monitoring and Targeted Re-Decoding for Quantized Small Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.20129/) (2026)
- [Metacognitive Behavioral Tuning of Large Language Models for Multi-Hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.22508/) (2026)
- [A First-Principles Theory of Slow Thinking and Active Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08196/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Test-time scaling via explicit reasoning trajectories significantly boosts large language model (LLM) performance but often triggers overthinking. To explore this, we analyze reasoning through two lenses: Reasoning Length Dynamics, which reveals a compensatory trade-off between thinking and answer content length that eventually leads to thinking redundancy, and Reasoning Semantic Dynamics, which identifies semantic convergence and repetitive oscillations. These dynamics uncover an instance-specific Reasoning Completion Point (RCP), beyond which computation continues without further performance gain. Since the RCP varies across instances, we propose a Reasoning Completion Point Detector (RCPD), an inference-time early-exit method that identifies the RCP by monitoring the rank dynamics of termination tokens (e.g., </think>). Across AIME and GPQA benchmarks using Qwen3 and DeepSeek-R1, RCPD reduces token usage by up to 44% while preserving accuracy, offering a principled approach to efficient test-time scaling.