# Sequential Cohort Selection under Uncertainty

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16386 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.16386/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Equality of Opportunity in Supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02413/) (2016)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning: Tutorial, Review, and Perspectives on Open Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.01643/) (2020)
- [Modeling Tabular data using Conditional GAN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00503/) (2019)
- [Fair prediction with disparate impact: A study of bias in recidivism prediction instruments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.07524/) (2016)
- [Inherent Trade-Offs in the Fair Determination of Risk Scores](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.05807/) (2016)
- [Algorithmic decision making and the cost of fairness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.08230/) (2017)
- [Fairness in Criminal Justice Risk Assessments: The State of the Art](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.09207/) (2017)
- [Algorithmic Fairness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.09784/) (2020)
- [Mitigating Bias in Set Selection with Noisy Protected Attributes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.04219/) (2020)
- [On Meritocracy in Optimal Set Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11932/) (2021)
- [Decision making under uncertainty in energy systems: state of the art](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10905/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We study the problem of fair cohort selection under uncertainty, motivated by university admissions where applicant outcomes are only partially observed. We consider both a one-shot setting, where a fixed policy is applied to a population, and a sequential setting, where policies are updated over time using data from previous admission years. We propose a policy optimization framework that combines probabilistic modeling of outcomes with policy gradient methods, supporting both logistic and neural network policies. In the sequential setting, the approach jointly updates the policy and the underlying models to adapt to evolving applicant populations. Experiments on a simulator grounded in real admission data show that adaptive policies substantially outperform static baselines in term of expected utility, especially under higher admission costs. Neural policies consistently achieve higher utility and adapt more effectively than simpler models, while maintaining favorable fairness properties over time. Our results demonstrate the importance of adaptivity and model expressiveness for decision-making under uncertainty.