# From Confidence to Collapse in LLM Factual Robustness

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16267 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.16267/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [DistilBERT, a distilled version of BERT: smaller, faster, cheaper and lighter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01108/) (2019)
- [SQuAD: 100,000+ Questions for Machine Comprehension of Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.05250/) (2016)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [Language Models as Knowledge Bases?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.01066/) (2019)
- [Transformer Feed-Forward Layers Are Key-Value Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14913/) (2020)
- [On Faithfulness and Factuality in Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00661/) (2020)
- [How Much Knowledge Can You Pack Into the Parameters of a Language Model?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08910/) (2020)
- [Knowledge Neurons in Pretrained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08696/) (2021)
- [Editing Factual Knowledge in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08164/) (2021)
- [An LLM can Fool Itself: A Prompt-Based Adversarial Attack](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.13345/) (2023)
- [GO FIGURE: A Meta Evaluation of Factuality in Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.12834/) (2020)
- [Factual Confidence of LLMs: on Reliability and Robustness of Current Estimators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.13415/) (2024)
- [Do Large Language Models Know about Facts?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05177/) (2023)
- [EDT: Improving Large Language Models' Generation by Entropy-based Dynamic Temperature Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14541/) (2024)
- [ComparisonQA: Evaluating Factuality Robustness of LLMs Through Knowledge Frequency Control and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.20251/) (2024)
- [LLM Robustness Against Misinformation in Biomedical Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21330/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Illusions of Confidence? Diagnosing LLM Truthfulness via Neighborhood Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.05905/) (2026)
- [From Performance to Purpose: A Sociotechnical Taxonomy for Evaluating Large Language Model Utility](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.20513/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Ensuring the robustness of factual knowledge in LLMs is critical for reliable applications in tasks such as question answering and reasoning. However, existing evaluation methods predominantly focus on performance-based metrics, often investigating from the perspective of prompt perturbations, which captures only the externally triggered side of knowledge robustness. To bridge this gap, we introduce a principled approach to measure factual robustness from the perspective of the generation process by analyzing token distribution entropy in combination with temperature scaling sensitivity. These two factors build the Factual Robustness Score (FRS), a novel metric which quantifies the stability of a fact against perturbations in decoding conditions, given its initial uncertainty. To validate our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on 5 LLMs across 3 closed-book QA datasets (SQuAD, TriviaQA, and HotpotQA). We show that factual robustness varies significantly -- smaller models report an FRS of 0.76, larger ones 0.93 -- with accuracy degrading by ~60% under increased uncertainty. These insights demonstrate how entropy and temperature scaling impact factual accuracy, and lay a foundation for developing more robust knowledge retention and retrieval in future models.