# Deep Think with Confidence

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15260 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/

## Key facts

- Cited by 205 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 34 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Aug 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03387/) (2025)
- [MathArena: Evaluating LLMs on Uncontaminated Math Competitions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23281/) (2025)
- [O1-Pruner: Length-Harmonizing Fine-Tuning for O1-Like Reasoning Pruning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12570/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [Dynamic Early Exit in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15895/) (2025)
- [Learning to Reason without External Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19590/) (2025)
- [ThinkPrune: Pruning Long Chain-of-Thought of LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.01296/) (2025)
- [Scalable Best-of-N Selection for Large Language Models via Self-Certainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18581/) (2025)
- [Imitate, Explore, and Self-Improve: A Reproduction Report on Slow-thinking Reasoning Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.09413/) (2024)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [From Decoding to Meta-Generation: Inference-time Algorithms for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16838/) (2024)
- [Let's Sample Step by Step: Adaptive-Consistency for Efficient Reasoning and Coding with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11860/) (2023)
- [Escape Sky-high Cost: Early-stopping Self-Consistency for Multi-step Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10480/) (2024)
- [Don't Overthink it. Preferring Shorter Thinking Chains for Improved LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17813/) (2025)
- [Self-Evaluation Improves Selective Generation in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09300/) (2023)
- [Learning to Route LLMs with Confidence Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13284/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Inference-Time Compute: LLMs Can Predict if They Can Do Better, Even Mid-Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02725/) (2024)
- [Reasoning Aware Self-Consistency: Leveraging Reasoning Paths for Efficient LLM Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.17017/) (2024)
- [Rewarding Chatbots for Real-World Engagement with Millions of Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06135/) (2023)
- [Efficiently Scaling LLM Reasoning with Certaindex](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.20993/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 205)

- [TTT3R: 3D Reconstruction as Test-Time Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26645/) (2025)
- [Parallel-R1: Towards Parallel Thinking via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.07980/) (2025)
- [Nemotron-Cascade: Scaling Cascaded Reinforcement Learning for General-Purpose Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.13607/) (2025)
- [The Majority is not always right: RL training for solution aggregation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.06870/) (2025)
- [Reverse-Engineered Reasoning for Open-Ended Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.06160/) (2025)
- [Agent0-VL: Exploring Self-Evolving Agent for Tool-Integrated Vision-Language Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.19900/) (2025)
- [CDE: Curiosity-Driven Exploration for Efficient Reinforcement Learning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.09675/) (2025)
- [Single-stream Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13232/) (2025)
- [Adaptive Action Chunking at Inference-time for Vision-Language-Action Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.04161/) (2026)
- [Exploration vs Exploitation: Rethinking RLVR through Clipping, Entropy, and Spurious Reward](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.16912/) (2025)
- [Beyond Majority Voting: LLM Aggregation by Leveraging Higher-Order Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01499/) (2025)
- [Think Deep, Not Just Long: Measuring LLM Reasoning Effort via Deep-Thinking Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13517/) (2026)
- [Rethinking Thinking Tokens: LLMs as Improvement Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01123/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty Quantification in LLM Agents: Foundations, Emerging Challenges, and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05073/) (2026)
- [Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10409/) (2025)
- [Mitigating LLM Hallucination via Behaviorally Calibrated Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.19920/) (2025)
- [Agentic Aggregation for Parallel Scaling of Long-Horizon Agentic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.11753/) (2026)
- [Equilibrium Reasoners: Learning Attractors Enables Scalable Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.21488/) (2026)
- [Stop When Enough: Adaptive Early-Stopping for Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10103/) (2025)
- [TUMIX: Multi-Agent Test-Time Scaling with Tool-Use Mixture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01279/) (2025)
- [Can Aha Moments Be Fake? Towards Quantifying Decorative and True Thinking in Chain-of-Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.24941/) (2025)
- [Agentic Confidence Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15778/) (2026)
- [Parallel Test-Time Scaling for Latent Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.07745/) (2025)
- [ParallelMuse: Agentic Parallel Thinking for Deep Information Seeking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.24698/) (2025)
- [Small Generalizable Prompt Predictive Models Can Steer Efficient RL Post-Training of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01970/) (2026)
- [Parallel-Probe: Towards Efficient Parallel Thinking via 2D Probing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03845/) (2026)
- [Energy Use of AI Inference, Efficiency Pathways, and Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.20241/) (2025)
- [Falcon-H1R: Pushing the Reasoning Frontiers with a Hybrid Model for Efficient Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.02346/) (2026)
- [CLUE: Non-parametric Verification from Experience via Hidden-State Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01591/) (2025)
- [Certified Self-Consistency: Statistical Guarantees and Test-Time Training for Reliable Reasoning in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17472/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling methods like self-consistency with majority voting. However, this approach often leads to diminishing returns in accuracy and high computational overhead. To address these challenges, we introduce Deep Think with Confidence (DeepConf), a simple yet powerful method that enhances both reasoning efficiency and performance at test time. DeepConf leverages model-internal confidence signals to dynamically filter out low-quality reasoning traces during or after generation. It requires no additional model training or hyperparameter tuning and can be seamlessly integrated into existing serving frameworks. We evaluate DeepConf across a variety of reasoning tasks and the latest open-source models, including Qwen 3 and GPT-OSS series. Notably, on challenging benchmarks such as AIME 2025, DeepConf@512 achieves up to 99.9% accuracy and reduces generated tokens by up to 84.7% compared to full parallel thinking.