# Twin-Boot: Uncertainty-Aware Optimization via Online Two-Sample Bootstrapping

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.15019 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15019/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 18 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Sharpness-Aware Minimization for Efficiently Improving Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.01412/) (2020)
- [On Large-Batch Training for Deep Learning: Generalization Gap and Sharp Minima](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.04836/) (2016)
- [Averaging Weights Leads to Wider Optima and Better Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05407/) (2018)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [The CMA Evolution Strategy: A Tutorial](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.00772/) (2016)
- [Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1402.4102/) (2014)
- [Stochastic Gradient Descent as Approximate Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04289/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Standard gradient descent methods yield point estimates with no measure of confidence. This limitation is acute in overparameterized and low-data regimes, where models have many parameters relative to available data and can easily overfit. Bootstrapping is a classical statistical framework for uncertainty estimation based on resampling, but naively applying it to deep learning is impractical: it requires training many replicas, produces post-hoc estimates that cannot guide learning, and implicitly assumes comparable optima across runs - an assumption that fails in non-convex landscapes. We introduce Twin-Bootstrap Gradient Descent (Twin-Boot), a resampling-based training procedure that integrates uncertainty estimation into optimization. Two identical models are trained in parallel on independent bootstrap samples, and a periodic mean-reset keeps both trajectories in the same basin so that their divergence reflects local (within-basin) uncertainty. During training, we use this estimate to sample weights in an adaptive, data-driven way, providing regularization that favors flatter solutions. In deep neural networks and complex high-dimensional inverse problems, the approach improves calibration and generalization and yields interpretable uncertainty maps.