# REHEARSE: Experiential Rehearsal for Verbal Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14390 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.14390/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [On Verbalized Confidence Scores for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14737/) (2024)
- [Rewarding Doubt: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Calibrated Confidence Expression of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02623/) (2025)
- [LitCab: Lightweight Language Model Calibration over Short- and Long-form Responses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.19208/) (2023)
- [When to Trust LLMs: Aligning Confidence with Response Quality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.17287/) (2024)
- [SteerConf: Steering LLMs for Confidence Elicitation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02863/) (2025)
- [Enhancing Language Model Factuality via Activation-Based Confidence Calibration and Guided Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.13230/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.24661/) (2025)
- [Optimizing Chain-of-Thought Confidence via Topological and Dirichlet Risk Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.06437/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) often express verbal confidence that is poorly aligned with actual correctness, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. Existing prompt-based methods treat calibration largely as a one-shot inference problem, relying on either instance-level reasoning or post-hoc self-assessment. We introduce Rehearse (Experiential Rehearsal), a training-free method that instead enables models to adapt from their own scored confidence experience. In a credence-calibration game grounded in a strictly proper scoring rule, the model receives feedback on prior confidence decisions; this experience is summarized in a post-game trajectory prefix that captures systematic over- or under-confidence. At inference time, the model applies this cross-instance calibration signal to the chain-of-thought reasoning trace for each new question. Across four LLMs, three benchmarks, and five random seeds, Rehearse achieves the lowest average ECE among training-free methods with improved accuracy, reducing average ECE by 58% relative to the uncalibrated baseline. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Experiential-Rehearsal-7C77/.