# Confidence Estimation for Text-to-SQL in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14056 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.14056/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02311/) (2022)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Is Your Code Generated by ChatGPT Really Correct? Rigorous Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.01210/) (2023)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [DeepSeek-Coder: When the Large Language Model Meets Programming -- The Rise of Code Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.14196/) (2024)
- [Spider: A Large-Scale Human-Labeled Dataset for Complex and Cross-Domain Semantic Parsing and Text-to-SQL Task](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.08887/) (2018)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Can LLM Already Serve as A Database Interface? A BIg Bench for Large-Scale Database Grounded Text-to-SQLs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.03111/) (2023)
- [DIN-SQL: Decomposed In-Context Learning of Text-to-SQL with Self-Correction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.11015/) (2023)
- [RAT-SQL: Relation-Aware Schema Encoding and Linking for Text-to-SQL Parsers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.04942/) (2019)
- [Text-to-SQL Empowered by Large Language Models: A Benchmark Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15363/) (2023)
- [Towards Complex Text-to-SQL in Cross-Domain Database with Intermediate Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.08205/) (2019)
- [Survey on Factuality in Large Language Models: Knowledge, Retrieval and Domain-Specificity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07521/) (2023)
- [C3: Zero-shot Text-to-SQL with ChatGPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.07306/) (2023)
- [LGESQL: Line Graph Enhanced Text-to-SQL Model with Mixed Local and Non-Local Relations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.01093/) (2021)
- [Llamas Know What GPTs Don't Show: Surrogate Models for Confidence Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08877/) (2023)
- [Understanding the Effects of Noise in Text-to-SQL: An Examination of the BIRD-Bench Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12243/) (2024)
- [Calibrated Interpretation: Confidence Estimation in Semantic Parsing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.07443/) (2022)
- [Cycles of Thought: Measuring LLM Confidence through Stable Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03441/) (2024)
- [Reliable Text-to-SQL with Adaptive Abstention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.10858/) (2025)
- [Did You Ask a Good Question? A Cross-Domain Question Intention Classification Benchmark for Text-to-SQL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.12634/) (2020)
- [Confidence Estimation for Error Detection in Text-to-SQL Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.09527/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Towards Agents That Know When They Don't Know: Uncertainty as a Control Signal for Structured Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.02401/) (2025)
- [Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.25938/) (2026)
- [Does a Governed Confidence Score Know When a Text-to-SQL Answer Is Right? An Exploratory Study on BIRD and a Pre-registered Confirmation on Spider](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.17256/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Confidence estimation for text-to-SQL aims to assess the reliability of model-generated SQL queries without having access to gold answers. We study this problem in the context of large language models (LLMs), where access to model weights and gradients is often constrained. We explore both black-box and white-box confidence estimation strategies, evaluating their effectiveness on cross-domain text-to-SQL benchmarks. Our evaluation highlights the superior performance of consistency-based methods among black-box models and the advantage of SQL-syntax-aware approaches for interpreting LLM logits in white-box settings. Furthermore, we show that execution-based grounding of queries provides a valuable supplementary signal, improving the effectiveness of both approaches.