# Causally-Guided Pairwise Transformer -- Towards Foundational Digital Twins in Process Industry

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.13111 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.13111/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 22 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02368/) (2024)
- [TSMixer: Lightweight MLP-Mixer Model for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09364/) (2023)
- [Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.03955/) (2024)
- [Digital Twin: Values, Challenges and Enablers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01719/) (2019)
- [Rethinking Channel Dependence for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Learning from Leading Indicators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.17548/) (2024)
- [Learning Paradigms and Modelling Methodologies for Digital Twins in Process Industry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.02275/) (2024)
- [Causal Time-Series Synchronization for Multi-Dimensional Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.10152/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Foundational modelling of multi-dimensional time-series data in industrial systems presents a central trade-off: channel-dependent (CD) models capture specific cross-variable dynamics but lack robustness and adaptability as model layers are commonly bound to the data dimensionality of the tackled use-case, while channel-independent (CI) models offer generality at the cost of modelling the explicit interactions crucial for system-level predictive regression tasks. To resolve this, we propose the Causally-Guided Pairwise Transformer (CGPT), a novel architecture that integrates a known causal graph as an inductive bias. The core of CGPT is built around a pairwise modeling paradigm, tackling the CD/CI conflict by decomposing the multidimensional data into pairs. The model uses channel-agnostic learnable layers where all parameter dimensions are independent of the number of variables. CGPT enforces a CD information flow at the pair-level and CI-like generalization across pairs. This approach disentangles complex system dynamics and results in a highly flexible architecture that ensures scalability and any-variate adaptability. We validate CGPT on a suite of synthetic and real-world industrial datasets on long-term and one-step forecasting tasks designed to simulate common industrial complexities. Results demonstrate that CGPT significantly outperforms both CI and CD baselines in predictive accuracy and shows competitive performance with end-to-end trained CD models while remaining agnostic to the problem dimensionality.