# SNAP-UQ: Self-supervised Next-Activation Prediction for Single-Pass Uncertainty in TinyML

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.12907 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.12907/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 42 of its 61 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Fashion-MNIST: a Novel Image Dataset for Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07747/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [MobileNets: Efficient Convolutional Neural Networks for Mobile Vision Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04861/) (2017)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Quantization and Training of Neural Networks for Efficient Integer-Arithmetic-Only Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.05877/) (2017)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [AugMix: A Simple Data Processing Method to Improve Robustness and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02781/) (2019)
- [Once-for-All: Train One Network and Specialize it for Efficient Deployment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.09791/) (2019)
- [Speech Commands: A Dataset for Limited-Vocabulary Speech Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.03209/) (2018)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [Learned Step Size Quantization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.08153/) (2019)
- [Up or Down? Adaptive Rounding for Post-Training Quantization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10568/) (2020)
- [BranchyNet: Fast Inference via Early Exiting from Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.01686/) (2017)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [ReAct: Out-of-distribution Detection With Rectified Activations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.12797/) (2021)
- [BRECQ: Pushing the Limit of Post-Training Quantization by Block Reconstruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05426/) (2021)
- [PACT: Parameterized Clipping Activation for Quantized Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06085/) (2018)
- [CSI: Novelty Detection via Contrastive Learning on Distributionally Shifted Instances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.08176/) (2020)
- [Generalized ODIN: Detecting Out-of-distribution Image without Learning from Out-of-distribution Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11297/) (2020)
- [ViM: Out-Of-Distribution with Virtual-logit Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10807/) (2022)
- [Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07998/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [VOS: Learning What You Don't Know by Virtual Outlier Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01197/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reliable uncertainty estimation is a key missing piece for on-device monitoring in TinyML: microcontrollers must detect failures, distribution shift, or accuracy drops under strict flash/latency budgets, yet common uncertainty approaches (deep ensembles, MC dropout, early exits, temporal buffering) typically require multiple passes, extra branches, or state that is impractical on milliwatt hardware. This paper proposes a novel and practical method, SNAP-UQ, for single-pass, label-free uncertainty estimation based on depth-wise next-activation prediction. SNAP-UQ taps a small set of backbone layers and uses tiny int8 heads to predict the mean and scale of the next activation from a low-rank projection of the previous one; the resulting standardized prediction error forms a depth-wise surprisal signal that is aggregated and mapped through a lightweight monotone calibrator into an actionable uncertainty score. The design introduces no temporal buffers or auxiliary exits and preserves state-free inference, while increasing deployment footprint by only a few tens of kilobytes. Across vision and audio backbones, SNAP-UQ reduces flash and latency relative to early-exit and deep-ensemble baselines (typically ~40--60% smaller and ~25--35% faster), with several competing methods at similar accuracy often exceeding MCU memory limits. On corrupted streams, it improves accuracy-drop event detection by multiple AUPRC points and maintains strong failure detection (AUROC ≈ 0.9) in a single forward pass. By grounding uncertainty in layer-to-layer dynamics rather than solely in output confidence, SNAP-UQ offers a novel, resource-efficient basis for robust TinyML monitoring. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Ism-ail11/SNAP-UQ