# UQGNN: Uncertainty Quantification of Graph Neural Networks for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.08551 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.08551/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 73 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Temporal Convolutional Networks for Action Segmentation and Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.05267/) (2016)
- [Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07719/) (2021)
- [Structured Sequence Modeling with Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.07659/) (2016)
- [Diffusion-Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.02136/) (2015)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [Temporal Convolutional Networks: A Unified Approach to Action Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.08242/) (2016)
- [DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13629/) (2023)
- [Spatial-Temporal Hypergraph Self-Supervised Learning for Crime Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08587/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty Quantification of Sparse Travel Demand Prediction with Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05908/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for Traffic Forecasting: A Unified Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05875/) (2022)
- [Towards Unifying Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17360/) (2023)
- [STUaNet: Understanding uncertainty in spatiotemporal collective human mobility](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.06027/) (2021)
- [Joint Demand Prediction for Multimodal Systems: A Multi-task Multi-relational Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08078/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty-aware Predict-Then-Optimize Framework for Equitable Post-Disaster Power Restoration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04780/) (2025)
- [HCRide: Harmonizing Passenger Fairness and Driver Preference for Human-Centered Ride-Hailing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04811/) (2025)
- [SAUC: Sparsity-Aware Uncertainty Calibration for Spatiotemporal Prediction with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.08766/) (2024)
- [Enhancing Graph Neural Networks in Large-scale Traffic Incident Analysis with Concurrency Hypothesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.02542/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [HealthMamba: An Uncertainty-aware Spatiotemporal Graph State Space Model for Effective and Reliable Healthcare Facility Visit Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05286/) (2026)
- [TrustEnergy: A Unified Framework for Accurate and Reliable User-level Energy Usage Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.13422/) (2026)
- [SynHAT: A Two-stage Coarse-to-Fine Diffusion Framework for Synthesizing Human Activity Traces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.14705/) (2026)
- [EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00506/) (2026)
- [MobiDiff: Semantic-Aware Multi-Channel Discrete Diffusion for Human Mobility Data Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08357/) (2026)
- [Explainable AML Triage with LLMs: Evidence Retrieval and Counterfactual Checks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.19755/) (2026)
- [AGDN: Learning to Solve Traveling Salesman Problem with Anisotropic Graph Diffusion Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19185/) (2026)
- [SynEHR: Joint Modeling Inter-visit Temporal Evolution and Intra-visit Clinical Structure for Longitudinal EHR Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.21673/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by developing advanced deep learning models for spatiotemporal prediction. However, most existing models are deterministic, i.e., predicting only the expected mean values without quantifying uncertainty, leading to potentially unreliable and inaccurate outcomes. While recent studies have introduced probabilistic models to quantify uncertainty, they typically focus on a single phenomenon (e.g., taxi, bike, crime, or traffic crashes), thereby neglecting the inherent correlations among heterogeneous urban phenomena. To address the research gap, we propose a novel Graph Neural Network with Uncertainty Quantification, termed UQGNN for multivariate spatiotemporal prediction. UQGNN introduces two key innovations: (i) an Interaction-aware Spatiotemporal Embedding Module that integrates a multivariate diffusion graph convolutional network and an interaction-aware temporal convolutional network to effectively capture complex spatial and temporal interaction patterns, and (ii) a multivariate probabilistic prediction module designed to estimate both expected mean values and associated uncertainties. Extensive experiments on four real-world multivariate spatiotemporal datasets from Shenzhen, New York City, and Chicago demonstrate that UQGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. For example, on the Shenzhen dataset, UQGNN achieves a 5% improvement in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.