# Adaptive Fine-Tuning via Pattern Specialization for Deep Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07927 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.07927/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [A Multi-Horizon Quantile Recurrent Forecaster](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.11053/) (2017)
- [Deep Factors for Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12417/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Post-Training in Time Series Foundation Models: A Unifying Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.20002/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time series forecasting poses significant challenges in non-stationary environments where underlying patterns evolve over time. In this work, we propose a novel framework that enhances deep neural network (DNN) performance by leveraging specialized model adaptation and selection. Initially, a base DNN is trained offline on historical time series data. A reserved validation subset is then segmented to extract and cluster the most dominant patterns within the series, thereby identifying distinct regimes. For each identified cluster, the base DNN is fine-tuned to produce a specialized version that captures unique pattern characteristics. At inference, the most recent input is matched against the cluster centroids, and the corresponding fine-tuned version is deployed based on the closest similarity measure. Additionally, our approach integrates a concept drift detection mechanism to identify and adapt to emerging patterns caused by non-stationary behavior. The proposed framework is generalizable across various DNN architectures and has demonstrated significant performance gains on both traditional DNNs and recent advanced architectures implemented in the GluonTS library.