# IBPS: Indian Bail Prediction System

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07592 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.07592/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

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- [LexGLUE: A Benchmark Dataset for Legal Language Understanding in English](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.00976/) (2021)
- [CAIL2018: A Large-Scale Legal Dataset for Judgment Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.02478/) (2018)
- [Large-Scale Multi-Label Text Classification on EU Legislation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02192/) (2019)
- [Swiss-Judgment-Prediction: A Multilingual Legal Judgment Prediction Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.00806/) (2021)
- [Interpretable Charge Predictions for Criminal Cases: Learning to Generate Court Views from Fact Descriptions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08504/) (2018)
- [Named Entity Recognition in Indian court judgments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.03442/) (2022)
- [LegalSeg: Unlocking the Structure of Indian Legal Judgments Through Rhetorical Role Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.05836/) (2025)
- [Japanese Tort-case Dataset for Rationale-supported Legal Judgment Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00480/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Bail decisions are among the most frequently adjudicated matters in Indian courts, yet they remain plagued by subjectivity, delays, and inconsistencies. With over 75% of India's prison population comprising undertrial prisoners, many from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds, the lack of timely and fair bail adjudication exacerbates human rights concerns and contributes to systemic judicial backlog. In this paper, we present the Indian Bail Prediction System (IBPS), an AI-powered framework designed to assist in bail decision-making by predicting outcomes and generating legally sound rationales based solely on factual case attributes and statutory provisions. We curate and release a large-scale dataset of 150,430 High Court bail judgments, enriched with structured annotations such as age, health, criminal history, crime category, custody duration, statutes, and judicial reasoning. We fine-tune a large language model using parameter-efficient techniques and evaluate its performance across multiple configurations, with and without statutory context, and with RAG. Our results demonstrate that models fine-tuned with statutory knowledge significantly outperform baselines, achieving strong accuracy and explanation quality, and generalize well to a test set independently annotated by legal experts. IBPS offers a transparent, scalable, and reproducible solution to support data-driven legal assistance, reduce bail delays, and promote procedural fairness in the Indian judicial system.