# Forecasting Commodity Price Shocks Using Temporal and Semantic Fusion of Prices Signals and Agentic Generative AI Extracted Economic News

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.06497 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06497/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 6 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [BloombergGPT: A Large Language Model for Finance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17564/) (2023)
- [Financial Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning : A Systematic Literature Review: 2005-2019](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.13288/) (2019)
- [Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07619/) (2023)
- [LLMFactor: Extracting Profitable Factors through Prompts for Explainable Stock Movement Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10811/) (2024)
- [Multi-modal Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.13709/) (2025)
- [BEYONDWORDS is All You Need: Agentic Generative AI based Social Media Themes Extractor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01880/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate forecasting of commodity price spikes is vital for countries with limited economic buffers, where sudden increases can strain national budgets, disrupt import-reliant sectors, and undermine food and energy security. This paper introduces a hybrid forecasting framework that combines historical commodity price data with semantic signals derived from global economic news, using an agentic generative AI pipeline. The architecture integrates dual-stream Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with attention mechanisms to fuse structured time-series inputs with semantically embedded, fact-checked news summaries collected from 1960 to 2023. The model is evaluated on a 64-year dataset comprising normalized commodity price series and temporally aligned news embeddings. Results show that the proposed approach achieves a mean AUC of 0.94 and an overall accuracy of 0.91 substantially outperforming traditional baselines such as logistic regression (AUC = 0.34), random forest (AUC = 0.57), and support vector machines (AUC = 0.47). Additional ablation studies reveal that the removal of attention or dimensionality reduction leads to moderate declines in performance, while eliminating the news component causes a steep drop in AUC to 0.46, underscoring the critical value of incorporating real-world context through unstructured text. These findings demonstrate that integrating agentic generative AI with deep learning can meaningfully improve early detection of commodity price shocks, offering a practical tool for economic planning and risk mitigation in volatile market environments while saving the very high costs of operating a full generative AI agents pipeline.