# Let's Measure Information Step-by-Step: AI-Based Evaluation Beyond Vibes

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05469 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.05469/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 25 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [A Simple Framework for Contrastive Learning of Visual Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05709/) (2020)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08073/) (2022)
- [Don't Give Me the Details, Just the Summary! Topic-Aware Convolutional Neural Networks for Extreme Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.08745/) (2018)
- [Get To The Point: Summarization with Pointer-Generator Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04368/) (2017)
- [Teaching Machines to Read and Comprehend](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.03340/) (2015)
- [Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03827/) (2022)
- [The Geometry of Truth: Emergent Linear Structure in Large Language Model Representations of True/False Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06824/) (2023)
- [SAMSum Corpus: A Human-annotated Dialogue Dataset for Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12237/) (2019)
- [A Discourse-Aware Attention Model for Abstractive Summarization of Long Documents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.05685/) (2018)
- [Multi-News: a Large-Scale Multi-Document Summarization Dataset and Abstractive Hierarchical Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01749/) (2019)
- [AI safety via debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.00899/) (2018)
- [Humans or LLMs as the Judge? A Study on Judgement Biases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10669/) (2024)
- [Measuring Progress on Scalable Oversight for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.03540/) (2022)
- [Formal Limitations on the Measurement of Mutual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.04251/) (2018)
- [A Dataset of Peer Reviews (PeerRead): Collection, Insights and NLP Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.09635/) (2018)
- [BillSum: A Corpus for Automatic Summarization of US Legislation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.00523/) (2019)
- [Abstractive Summarization of Reddit Posts with Multi-level Memory Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00783/) (2018)
- [Are You Getting What You Pay For? Auditing Model Substitution in LLM APIs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04715/) (2025)
- [Benchmarking LLMs' Judgments with No Gold Standard](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.07127/) (2024)
- [Eliciting Informative Text Evaluations with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15077/) (2024)
- [Water from Two Rocks: Maximizing the Mutual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08887/) (2018)
- [ElicitationGPT: Text Elicitation Mechanisms via Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09363/) (2024)
- [Learning and Strongly Truthful Multi-Task Peer Prediction: A Variational Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14730/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We evaluate artificial intelligence (AI) systems without ground truth by exploiting a link between strategic gaming and information loss. Building on established information theory, we analyze which mechanisms resist adversarial manipulation. This motivates mutual evaluation, where the overseer is treated as a strategic player estimating mutual information by prompting, making truthful agent reporting an optimal strategy. We show that certain f-divergences, such as total variation distance (TVD), maintain polynomial guarantees under attack, building on an established exponential barrier for estimating mutual information (MI) in worst-case certification settings. Under adversarial attacks, TVD-MI maintains effectiveness (area under the curve 0.70--0.77) while other approaches can decay toward chance, demonstrating that prompting the same system for information relationships rather than quality judgments can improve robustness. The mechanisms decompose pairwise evaluations into reliable item-level detection scores without ground truth, addressing a key limitation of standard peer prediction. Pre-registration: https://osf.io/c7pum .