# Uncertainty-aware Predict-Then-Optimize Framework for Equitable Post-Disaster Power Restoration

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04780 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04780/

## Key facts

- Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Conservative Q-Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04779/) (2020)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning with Diversified Q-Ensemble](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01548/) (2021)
- [Statistical Aspects of Wasserstein Distances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.05500/) (2018)
- [Uncertainty Quantification and Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.08792/) (2020)
- [DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13629/) (2023)
- [Beyond Pinball Loss: Quantile Methods for Calibrated Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.09588/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty Quantification of Sparse Travel Demand Prediction with Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05908/) (2022)
- [Scaling Up Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Inverse Problems using Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03906/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [UQGNN: Uncertainty Quantification of Graph Neural Networks for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.08551/) (2025)
- [HealthMamba: An Uncertainty-aware Spatiotemporal Graph State Space Model for Effective and Reliable Healthcare Facility Visit Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05286/) (2026)
- [SynHAT: A Two-stage Coarse-to-Fine Diffusion Framework for Synthesizing Human Activity Traces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.14705/) (2026)
- [EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00506/) (2026)
- [MobiDiff: Semantic-Aware Multi-Channel Discrete Diffusion for Human Mobility Data Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08357/) (2026)
- [Semantic Robustness Certification for Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18839/) (2026)
- [UrbanHuRo: A Two-Layer Human-Robot Collaboration Framework for the Joint Optimization of Heterogeneous Urban Services](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.03701/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, highlights the urgent need for efficient and equitable power system restoration. Many electricity providers make restoration decisions primarily based on the volume of power restoration requests from each region. However, our data-driven analysis reveals significant disparities in request submission volume, as disadvantaged communities tend to submit fewer restoration requests. This disparity makes the current restoration solution inequitable, leaving these communities vulnerable to extended power outages. To address this, we aim to propose an equity-aware power restoration strategy that balances both restoration efficiency and equity across communities. However, achieving this goal is challenging for two reasons: the difficulty of predicting repair durations under dataset heteroscedasticity, and the tendency of reinforcement learning agents to favor low-uncertainty actions, which potentially undermine equity. To overcome these challenges, we design a predict-then-optimize framework called EPOPR with two key components: (1) Equity-Conformalized Quantile Regression for uncertainty-aware repair duration prediction, and (2) Spatial-Temporal Attentional RL that adapts to varying uncertainty levels across regions for equitable decision-making. Experimental results show that our EPOPR effectively reduces the average power outage duration by 3.60% and decreases inequity between different communities by 14.19% compared to state-of-the-art baselines.