# Channel-Independent Federated Traffic Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04517 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04517/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [MLP-Mixer: An all-MLP Architecture for Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.01601/) (2021)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [FITS: Modeling Time Series with 10k Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03756/) (2023)
- [Exploring Progress in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Comprehensive Benchmarking and Heterogeneity Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06119/) (2023)
- [Privacy-preserving Traffic Flow Prediction: A Federated Learning Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.08725/) (2020)
- [Multi-Range Attentive Bicomponent Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12093/) (2019)
- [Cross-Node Federated Graph Neural Network for Spatio-Temporal Data Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05223/) (2021)
- [Historical Inertia: A Neglected but Powerful Baseline for Long Sequence Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.16349/) (2021)
- [ST-MLP: A Cascaded Spatio-Temporal Linear Framework with Channel-Independence Strategy for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07496/) (2023)
- [MLPST: MLP is All You Need for Spatio-Temporal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.13363/) (2023)
- [Do We Really Need Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.12603/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In recent years, traffic prediction has achieved remarkable success and has become an integral component of intelligent transportation systems. However, traffic data is typically distributed among multiple data owners, and privacy constraints prevent the direct utilization of these isolated datasets for traffic prediction. Most existing federated traffic prediction methods focus on designing communication mechanisms that allow models to leverage information from other clients in order to improve prediction accuracy. Unfortunately, such approaches often incur substantial communication overhead, and the resulting transmission delays significantly slow down the training process. As the volume of traffic data continues to grow, this issue becomes increasingly critical, making the resource consumption of current methods unsustainable. To address this challenge, we propose a novel variable relationship modeling paradigm for federated traffic prediction, termed the Channel-Independent Paradigm(CIP). Unlike traditional approaches, CIP eliminates the need for inter-client communication by enabling each node to perform efficient and accurate predictions using only local information. Based on the CIP, we further develop Fed-CI, an efficient federated learning framework, allowing each client to process its own data independently while effectively mitigating the information loss caused by the lack of direct data sharing among clients. Fed-CI significantly reduces communication overhead, accelerates the training process, and achieves state-of-the-art performance while complying with privacy regulations. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that Fed-CI consistently outperforms existing methods across all datasets and federated settings. It achieves improvements of 8%, 14%, and 16% in RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, respectively, while also substantially reducing communication costs.