# Benchmarking Uncertainty and its Disentanglement in multi-label Chest X-Ray Classification

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04457 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04457/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A Survey on Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.05747/) (2017)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [MIMIC-CXR-JPG, a large publicly available database of labeled chest radiographs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.07042/) (2019)
- [A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02476/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [CheXNet: Radiologist-Level Pneumonia Detection on Chest X-Rays with Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05225/) (2017)
- [Learning Loss for Active Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03677/) (2019)
- [A review of deep learning in medical imaging: Imaging traits, technology trends, case studies with progress highlights, and future promises](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.09104/) (2020)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11582/) (2021)
- [Why M Heads are Better than One: Training a Diverse Ensemble of Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06314/) (2015)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Disentanglement: Specialized Uncertainties for Specialized Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19460/) (2024)
- [Correlated Input-Dependent Label Noise in Large-Scale Image Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10305/) (2021)
- [ValUES: A Framework for Systematic Validation of Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.08501/) (2024)
- [Transformer Uncertainty Estimation with Hierarchical Stochastic Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.13776/) (2021)
- [Massively Scaling Heteroscedastic Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.12860/) (2023)
- [From Modern CNNs to Vision Transformers: Assessing the Performance, Robustness, and Classification Strategies of Deep Learning Models in Histopathology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05044/) (2022)
- [EXACT: Towards a platform for empirically benchmarking Machine Learning model explanation methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.12261/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Beyond Boundary Noise: Aggregated Aleatoric Uncertainty Fails to Capture Presence Ambiguity in 3D Lung Nodule Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.14766/) (2026)
- [Enhancing Multi-Label Thoracic Disease Diagnosis with Deep Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.18839/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.30795/) (2026)
- [Structural Limits of the Information-Theoretic Uncertainty Decomposition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.39591/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for trustworthy decision-making and the deployment of AI models in medical imaging. While prior work has explored the ability of neural networks to quantify predictive, epistemic, and aleatoric uncertainties using an information-theoretical approach in synthetic or well defined data settings like natural image classification, its applicability to real life medical diagnosis tasks remains underexplored. In this study, we provide an extensive uncertainty quantification benchmark for multi-label chest X-ray classification using the MIMIC-CXR-JPG dataset. We evaluate 13 uncertainty quantification methods for convolutional (ResNet) and transformer-based (Vision Transformer) architectures across a wide range of tasks. Additionally, we extend Evidential Deep Learning, HetClass NNs, and Deep Deterministic Uncertainty to the multi-label setting. Our analysis provides insights into uncertainty estimation effectiveness and the ability to disentangle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, revealing method- and architecture-specific strengths and limitations.