# Is Uncertainty Quantification a Viable Alternative to Learned Deferral?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.02319 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02319/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Averaging Weights Leads to Wider Optima and Better Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05407/) (2018)
- [A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02476/) (2019)
- [Consistent Estimators for Learning to Defer to an Expert](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.01862/) (2020)
- [Flipout: Efficient Pseudo-Independent Weight Perturbations on Mini-Batches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.04386/) (2018)
- [Towards Unbiased and Accurate Deferral to Multiple Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.13004/) (2021)
- [Who Should Predict? Exact Algorithms For Learning to Defer to Humans](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.06197/) (2023)
- [Calibrated Learning to Defer with One-vs-All Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03673/) (2022)
- [Forming Effective Human-AI Teams: Building Machine Learning Models that Complement the Capabilities of Multiple Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07948/) (2022)
- [Principled Approaches for Learning to Defer with Multiple Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.14774/) (2023)
- [Predictor-Rejector Multi-Class Abstention: Theoretical Analysis and Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.14772/) (2023)
- [AIROGS: Artificial Intelligence for RObust Glaucoma Screening Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01738/) (2023)
- [Realizable H-Consistent and Bayes-Consistent Loss Functions for Learning to Defer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13732/) (2024)
- [Towards Human-AI Complementarity with Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17544/) (2024)
- [Incorporating Uncertainty in Learning to Defer Algorithms for Safe Computer-Aided Diagnosis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07392/) (2021)
- [Cost-Sensitive Learning to Defer to Multiple Experts with Workload Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.06906/) (2024)
- [Learning to Complement and to Defer to Multiple Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07003/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the potential to dramatically improve patient care. However, it is not infallible, necessitating human-AI-collaboration to ensure safe implementation. One aspect of AI safety is the models' ability to defer decisions to a human expert when they are likely to misclassify autonomously. Recent research has focused on methods that learn to defer by optimising a surrogate loss function that finds the optimal trade-off between predicting a class label or deferring. However, during clinical translation, models often face challenges such as data shift. Uncertainty quantification methods aim to estimate a model's confidence in its predictions. However, they may also be used as a deferral strategy which does not rely on learning from specific training distribution. We hypothesise that models developed to quantify uncertainty are more robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) input than learned deferral models that have been trained in a supervised fashion. To investigate this hypothesis, we constructed an extensive evaluation study on a large ophthalmology dataset, examining both learned deferral models and established uncertainty quantification methods, assessing their performance in- and out-of-distribution. Specifically, we evaluate their ability to accurately classify glaucoma from fundus images while deferring cases with a high likelihood of error. We find that uncertainty quantification methods may be a promising choice for AI deferral.