# A Simple and Effective Method for Uncertainty Quantification and OOD Detection

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00754 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.00754/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 24 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Aug 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Wide Residual Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07146/) (2016)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Deep Bayesian Active Learning with Image Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.02910/) (2017)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [Generalized ODIN: Detecting Out-of-distribution Image without Learning from Out-of-distribution Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11297/) (2020)
- [A Survey of Deep Learning Techniques for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.07738/) (2019)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11582/) (2021)
- [On Feature Collapse and Deep Kernel Learning for Single Forward Pass Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11409/) (2021)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13425/) (2023)
- [A Simple Approach to Improve Single-Model Deep Uncertainty via Distance-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.00403/) (2022)
- [Understanding Autoencoders with Information Theoretic Concepts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.00057/) (2018)
- [Density-Softmax: Efficient Test-time Model for Uncertainty Estimation and Robustness under Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06495/) (2023)
- [Discriminant Distance-Aware Representation on Deterministic Uncertainty Quantification Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12664/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensemble methods have been proposed for uncertainty quantification; however, they are computationally intensive and require large storage. By utilizing a single deterministic model, we can solve the above issue. We propose an effective method based on feature space density to quantify uncertainty for distributional shifts and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Specifically, we leverage the information potential field derived from kernel density estimation to approximate the feature space density of the training set. By comparing this density with the feature space representation of test samples, we can effectively determine whether a distributional shift has occurred. Experiments were conducted on a 2D synthetic dataset (Two Moons and Three Spirals) as well as an OOD detection task (CIFAR-10 vs. SVHN). The results demonstrate that our method outperforms baseline models.