# Deep Learning-based Prediction of Clinical Trial Enrollment with Uncertainty Estimates

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.23607 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.23607/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
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- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Gemini 1.5: Unlocking multimodal understanding across millions of tokens of context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05530/) (2024)
- [BioBERT: a pre-trained biomedical language representation model for biomedical text mining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.08746/) (2019)
- [ClinicalBERT: Modeling Clinical Notes and Predicting Hospital Readmission](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.05342/) (2019)
- [Large Language Models(LLMs) on Tabular Data: Prediction, Generation, and Understanding -- A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17944/) (2024)
- [Clinical-Longformer and Clinical-BigBird: Transformers for long clinical sequences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11838/) (2022)
- [Capabilities of Large Language Models in Control Engineering: A Benchmark Study on GPT-4, Claude 3 Opus, and Gemini 1.0 Ultra](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.03647/) (2024)
- [Trial2Vec: Zero-Shot Clinical Trial Document Similarity Search using Self-Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14719/) (2022)
- [SPOT: Sequential Predictive Modeling of Clinical Trial Outcome with Meta-Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05352/) (2023)
- [TrialDura: Hierarchical Attention Transformer for Interpretable Clinical Trial Duration Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.13235/) (2024)
- [Fine Tuning Large Language Models for Medicine: The Role and Importance of Direct Preference Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12741/) (2024)
- [TrialEnroll: Predicting Clinical Trial Enrollment Success with Deep & Cross Network and Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13115/) (2024)
- [A Machine Learning Approach for Recruitment Prediction in Clinical Trial Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.07407/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Clinical trials are a systematic endeavor to assess the safety and efficacy of new drugs or treatments. Conducting such trials typically demands significant financial investment and meticulous planning, highlighting the need for accurate predictions of trial outcomes. Accurately predicting patient enrollment, a key factor in trial success, is one of the primary challenges during the planning phase. In this work, we propose a novel deep learning-based method to address this critical challenge. Our method, implemented as a neural network model, leverages pre-trained language models (PLMs) to capture the complexities and nuances of clinical documents, transforming them into expressive representations. These representations are then combined with encoded tabular features via an attention mechanism. To account for uncertainties in enrollment prediction, we enhance the model with a probabilistic layer based on the Gamma distribution, which enables range estimation. We apply the proposed model to predict clinical trial duration, assuming site-level enrollment follows a Poisson-Gamma process. We carry out extensive experiments on real-world clinical trial data, and show that the proposed method can effectively predict the number of patients enrolled at a number of sites for a given clinical trial, outperforming established baseline models.