# Incorporating structural uncertainty in causal decision making

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.23495 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.23495/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Bayesian regression tree models for causal inference: regularization, confounding, and heterogeneous effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.09523/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Practitioners making decisions based on causal effects typically ignore structural uncertainty. We analyze when this uncertainty is consequential enough to warrant methodological solutions (Bayesian model averaging over competing causal structures). Focusing on bivariate relationships (X rightarrow Y vs. X leftarrow Y), we establish that model averaging is beneficial when: (1) structural uncertainty is moderate to high, (2) causal effects differ substantially between structures, and (3) loss functions are sufficiently sensitive to the size of the causal effect. We prove optimality results of our suggested methodological solution under regularity conditions and demonstrate through simulations that modern causal discovery methods can provide, within limits, the necessary quantification. Our framework complements existing robust causal inference approaches by addressing a distinct source of uncertainty typically overlooked in practice.