# Exploring the Link Between Bayesian Inference and Embodied Intelligence: Toward Open Physical-World Embodied AI Systems

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.21589 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21589/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 110 of its 142 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 110)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Qwen2.5-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13923/) (2025)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [BLIP: Bootstrapping Language-Image Pre-training for Unified Vision-Language Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12086/) (2022)
- [Zero-Shot Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12092/) (2021)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [Qwen Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16609/) (2023)
- [RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15818/) (2023)
- [OpenVLA: An Open-Source Vision-Language-Action Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09246/) (2024)
- [π0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.24164/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Large Language Model based Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11432/) (2023)
- [Voyager: An Open-Ended Embodied Agent with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16291/) (2023)
- [Qwen2 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.10671/) (2024)
- [PaLM-E: An Embodied Multimodal Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.03378/) (2023)
- [RT-1: Robotics Transformer for Real-World Control at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06817/) (2022)
- [WebArena: A Realistic Web Environment for Building Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13854/) (2023)
- [π0.5: a Vision-Language-Action Model with Open-World Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.16054/) (2025)
- [Learning Fine-Grained Bimanual Manipulation with Low-Cost Hardware](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13705/) (2023)
- [The Rise and Potential of Large Language Model Based Agents: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07864/) (2023)
- [CAMEL: Communicative Agents for "Mind" Exploration of Large Language Model Society](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17760/) (2023)
- [AgentBench: Evaluating LLMs as Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03688/) (2023)
- [Mind2Web: Towards a Generalist Agent for the Web](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06070/) (2023)
- [GR00T N1: An Open Foundation Model for Generalist Humanoid Robots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14734/) (2025)
- [ChatGLM: A Family of Large Language Models from GLM-130B to GLM-4 All Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12793/) (2024)
- [Language Models as Zero-Shot Planners: Extracting Actionable Knowledge for Embodied Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07207/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Embodied intelligence posits that cognitive capabilities fundamentally emerge from - and are shaped by - an agent's real-time sensorimotor interactions with its environment. Such adaptive behavior inherently requires continuous inference under uncertainty. Bayesian statistics offers a principled probabilistic framework to address this challenge by representing knowledge as probability distributions and updating beliefs in response to new evidence. The core computational processes underlying embodied intelligence - including perception, action selection, learning, and even higher-level cognition - can be effectively understood and modeled as forms of Bayesian inference. Despite the deep conceptual connection between Bayesian statistics and embodied intelligence, Bayesian principles have not been widely or explicitly applied in today's embodied intelligence systems. In this work, we examine both Bayesian and contemporary embodied intelligence approaches through two fundamental lenses: search and learning - the two central themes in modern AI, as highlighted in Rich Sutton's influential essay "The Bitter Lesson". This analysis sheds light on why Bayesian inference has not played a central role in the development of modern embodied intelligence. At the same time, it reveals that current embodied intelligence systems remain largely confined to closed-physical-world environments, and highlights the potential for Bayesian methods to play a key role in extending these systems toward truly open physical-world embodied intelligence.