# Advancing Wildfire Risk Prediction via Morphology-Aware Curriculum Contrastive Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.21147 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21147/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [A Simple Framework for Contrastive Learning of Visual Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05709/) (2020)
- [FaceNet: A Unified Embedding for Face Recognition and Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03832/) (2015)
- [Supervised Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.11362/) (2020)
- [Unsupervised Feature Learning via Non-Parametric Instance-level Discrimination](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.01978/) (2018)
- [Is Space-Time Attention All You Need for Video Understanding?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05095/) (2021)
- [Contrastive Multiview Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05849/) (2019)
- [Learning deep representations by mutual information estimation and maximization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.06670/) (2018)
- [Video Swin Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13230/) (2021)
- [Data-Efficient Image Recognition with Contrastive Predictive Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.09272/) (2019)
- [Contrastive Learning with Hard Negative Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.04592/) (2020)
- [Next Day Wildfire Spread: A Machine Learning Data Set to Predict Wildfire Spreading from Remote-Sensing Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.02447/) (2021)
- [Improving Contrastive Learning on Imbalanced Seed Data via Open-World Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.01004/) (2021)
- [Negative Sampling for Contrastive Representation Learning: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00212/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning for Global Wildfire Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.00534/) (2022)
- [Location-aware Adaptive Normalization: A Deep Learning Approach For Wildfire Danger Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08208/) (2022)
- [Multi-time Predictions of Wildfire Grid Map using Remote Sensing Local Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.10102/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Wildfires significantly impact natural ecosystems and human health, leading to biodiversity loss, increased hydrogeological risks, and elevated emissions of toxic substances. Climate change exacerbates these effects, particularly in regions with rising temperatures and prolonged dry periods, such as the Mediterranean. This requires the development of advanced risk management strategies that utilize state-of-the-art technologies. However, in this context, the data show a bias toward an imbalanced setting, where the incidence of wildfire events is significantly lower than typical situations. This imbalance, coupled with the inherent complexity of high-dimensional spatio-temporal data, poses significant challenges for training deep learning architectures. Moreover, since precise wildfire predictions depend mainly on weather data, finding a way to reduce computational costs to enable more frequent updates using the latest weather forecasts would be beneficial. This paper investigates how adopting a contrastive framework can address these challenges through enhanced latent representations for the patch's dynamic features. We thus introduce a new morphology-based curriculum contrastive learning that mitigates issues associated with diverse regional characteristics and enables the use of smaller patch sizes without compromising performance. An experimental analysis is performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling strategies.