# Delving into Mapping Uncertainty for Mapless Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.18498 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.18498/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Scalability in Perception for Autonomous Driving: Waymo Open Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04838/) (2019)
- [BEVFormer: Learning Bird's-Eye-View Representation from Multi-Camera Images via Spatiotemporal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17270/) (2022)
- [Lift, Splat, Shoot: Encoding Images From Arbitrary Camera Rigs by Implicitly Unprojecting to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05711/) (2020)
- [BEVFusion: Multi-Task Multi-Sensor Fusion with Unified Bird's-Eye View Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13542/) (2022)
- [Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02620/) (2019)
- [Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00493/) (2023)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [MapTR: Structured Modeling and Learning for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.14437/) (2022)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [HDMapNet: An Online HD Map Construction and Evaluation Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06307/) (2021)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [VectorMapNet: End-to-end Vectorized HD Map Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.08920/) (2022)
- [MapTRv2: An End-to-End Framework for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05736/) (2023)
- [StreamMapNet: Streaming Mapping Network for Vectorized Online HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12570/) (2023)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)
- [Structured Bird's-Eye-View Traffic Scene Understanding from Onboard Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01997/) (2021)
- [PivotNet: Vectorized Pivot Learning for End-to-end HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.16477/) (2023)
- [LaneSegNet: Map Learning with Lane Segment Perception for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.16108/) (2023)
- [MGMap: Mask-Guided Learning for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.00876/) (2024)
- [HIMap: HybrId Representation Learning for End-to-end Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08639/) (2024)
- [Leveraging Enhanced Queries of Point Sets for Vectorized Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17430/) (2024)
- [Online Vectorized HD Map Construction using Geometry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03341/) (2023)
- [SuperFusion: Multilevel LiDAR-Camera Fusion for Long-Range HD Map Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15656/) (2022)
- [Producing and Leveraging Online Map Uncertainty in Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.16439/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Stability Under Scrutiny: Benchmarking Representation Paradigms for Online HD Mapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10660/) (2025)
- [AMap: Distilling Future Priors for Ahead-Aware Online HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.19150/) (2025)
- [UniUncer: Unified Dynamic Static Uncertainty for End to End Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.07686/) (2026)
- [Unified Map Prior Encoder for Mapping and Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.02762/) (2026)
- [CAPE: A CLIP-Aware Pointing Ensemble of Complementary Heatmap Cues for Embodied Reference Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21888/) (2025)
- [Plug-and-Play Traffic Element Awareness for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.18035/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advances in autonomous driving are moving towards mapless approaches, where High-Definition (HD) maps are generated online directly from sensor data, reducing the need for expensive labeling and maintenance. However, the reliability of these online-generated maps remains uncertain. While incorporating map uncertainty into downstream trajectory prediction tasks has shown potential for performance improvements, current strategies provide limited insights into the specific scenarios where this uncertainty is beneficial. In this work, we first analyze the driving scenarios in which mapping uncertainty has the greatest positive impact on trajectory prediction and identify a critical, previously overlooked factor: the agent's kinematic state. Building on these insights, we propose a novel Proprioceptive Scenario Gating that adaptively integrates map uncertainty into trajectory prediction based on forecasts of the ego vehicle's future kinematics. This lightweight, self-supervised approach enhances the synergy between online mapping and trajectory prediction, providing interpretability around where uncertainty is advantageous and outperforming previous integration methods. Additionally, we introduce a Covariance-based Map Uncertainty approach that better aligns with map geometry, further improving trajectory prediction. Extensive ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of our approach, achieving up to 23.6% improvement in mapless trajectory prediction performance over the state-of-the-art method using the real-world nuScenes driving dataset. Our code, data, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Ethan-Zheng136/Map-Uncertainty-for-Trajectory-Prediction.