# Distributional Uncertainty for Out-of-Distribution Detection

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.18106 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.18106/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Microsoft COCO: Common Objects in Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1405.0312/) (2014)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [The Cityscapes Dataset for Semantic Urban Scene Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.01685/) (2016)
- [Encoder-Decoder with Atrous Separable Convolution for Semantic Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.02611/) (2018)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Counts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09239/) (2020)
- [SegmentMeIfYouCan: A Benchmark for Anomaly Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14812/) (2021)
- [Evaluating Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12709/) (2018)
- [Detecting the Unexpected via Image Resynthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.07595/) (2019)
- [The Fishyscapes Benchmark: Measuring Blind Spots in Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.03215/) (2019)
- [GMMSeg: Gaussian Mixture based Generative Semantic Segmentation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02025/) (2022)
- [Pixel-wise Energy-biased Abstention Learning for Anomaly Segmentation on Complex Urban Driving Scenes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.12264/) (2021)
- [Residual Pattern Learning for Pixel-wise Out-of-Distribution Detection in Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14512/) (2022)
- [DenseHybrid: Hybrid Anomaly Detection for Dense Open-set Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.02606/) (2022)
- [Segment Every Out-of-Distribution Object](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16516/) (2023)
- [U-CE: Uncertainty-aware Cross-Entropy for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09947/) (2023)
- [Concurrent Misclassification and Out-of-Distribution Detection for Semantic Segmentation via Energy-Based Normalizing Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.09610/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Estimating uncertainty from deep neural networks is a widely used approach for detecting out-of-distribution (OoD) samples, which typically exhibit high predictive uncertainty. However, conventional methods such as Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout often focus solely on either model or data uncertainty, failing to align with the semantic objective of OoD detection. To address this, we propose the Free-Energy Posterior Network, a novel framework that jointly models distributional uncertainty and identifying OoD and misclassified regions using free energy. Our method introduces two key contributions: (1) a free-energy-based density estimator parameterized by a Beta distribution, which enables fine-grained uncertainty estimation near ambiguous or unseen regions; and (2) a loss integrated within a posterior network, allowing direct uncertainty estimation from learned parameters without requiring stochastic sampling. By integrating our approach with the residual prediction branch (RPL) framework, the proposed method goes beyond post-hoc energy thresholding and enables the network to learn OoD regions by leveraging the variance of the Beta distribution, resulting in a semantically meaningful and computationally efficient solution for uncertainty-aware segmentation. We validate the effectiveness of our method on challenging real-world benchmarks, including Fishyscapes, RoadAnomaly, and Segment-Me-If-You-Can.