# Old Rules in a New Game: Mapping Uncertainty Quantification to Quantum Machine Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.14919 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.14919/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [Variational Dropout and the Local Reparameterization Trick](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02557/) (2015)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [The effect of data encoding on the expressive power of variational quantum machine learning models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08605/) (2020)
- [A rigorous and robust quantum speed-up in supervised machine learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02174/) (2020)
- [Supervised quantum machine learning models are kernel methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.11020/) (2021)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13425/) (2023)
- [A Simple Approach to Improve Single-Model Deep Uncertainty via Distance-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.00403/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning for Engineering Design and Health Prognostics: A Tutorial](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04933/) (2023)
- [Quantum assisted Gaussian process regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03929/) (2015)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning on a Quantum Computer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.11463/) (2018)
- [Quantum Conformal Prediction for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Quantum Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03398/) (2023)
- [Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02146/) (2017)
- [Overfitting in quantum machine learning and entangling dropout](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11446/) (2022)
- [Quantum Gaussian Process Regression for Bayesian Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.12923/) (2023)
- [Quantum Bayesian Computation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.08068/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Trustworthy Quantum Machine Learning: A Roadmap for Reliability, Robustness, and Security in the NISQ Era](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.02602/) (2025)
- [QBFF: Deep Quantum Bottleneck for Automatic Speaker Verification Anti-Spoofing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.16390/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

One of the key obstacles in traditional deep learning is the reduction in model transparency caused by increasingly intricate model functions, which can lead to problems such as overfitting and excessive confidence in predictions. With the advent of quantum machine learning offering possible advances in computational power and latent space complexity, we notice the same opaque behavior. Despite significant research in classical contexts, there has been little advancement in addressing the black-box nature of quantum machine learning. Consequently, we approach this gap by building upon existing work in classical uncertainty quantification and initial explorations in quantum Bayesian modeling to theoretically develop and empirically evaluate techniques to map classical uncertainty quantification methods to the quantum machine learning domain. Our findings emphasize the necessity of leveraging classical insights into uncertainty quantification to include uncertainty awareness in the process of designing new quantum machine learning models.