# LLMs are Bayesian, In Expectation, Not in Realization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.11768 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.11768/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 32 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 32)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [Calibrate Before Use: Improving Few-Shot Performance of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09690/) (2021)
- [FEVER: a large-scale dataset for Fact Extraction and VERification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05355/) (2018)
- [Fantastically Ordered Prompts and Where to Find Them: Overcoming Few-Shot Prompt Order Sensitivity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08786/) (2021)
- [Self-Attention with Relative Position Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.02155/) (2018)
- [Train Short, Test Long: Attention with Linear Biases Enables Input Length Extrapolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.12409/) (2021)
- [An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.02080/) (2021)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.07677/) (2022)
- [What Can Transformers Learn In-Context? A Case Study of Simple Function Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01066/) (2022)
- [What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15661/) (2022)
- [Designing and Interpreting Probes with Control Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.03368/) (2019)
- [Causal Abstractions of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02997/) (2021)
- [Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10510/) (2021)
- [The Impact of Positional Encoding on Length Generalization in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19466/) (2023)
- [Transformers as Statisticians: Provable In-Context Learning with In-Context Algorithm Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.04637/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [Transformers as Algorithms: Generalization and Stability in In-context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07067/) (2023)
- [Probing the Probing Paradigm: Does Probing Accuracy Entail Task Relevance?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00719/) (2020)
- [Inducing Causal Structure for Interpretable Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.00826/) (2021)
- [Is In-Context Learning in Large Language Models Bayesian? A Martingale Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.00793/) (2024)
- [Contextual Position Encoding: Learning to Count What's Important](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18719/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently. We show this objection targets a structural invariant rather than the quantity scoring online prediction. For any Bayesian reference, excess prequential code length is exactly cumulative predictive KL. For unordered support sets that must be serialized, the expected regret of a single admissible ordering decomposes into that of the order-averaged predictor plus an order-averaging gain. Exchangeability violations are therefore not binary refutations; they are priced by log loss. We instantiate the theory with KT/Dirichlet finite-alphabet prediction and coarsened Bayesian linear-regression (BLR) predictive distributions. On Qwen2.5-7B/14B, floored candidate distributions at support 256 have one-step excess code lengths of 0.020/0.011 bits for Bernoulli and 0.039/0.022 bits for four-way categorical prediction, with candidate mass above 0.999; coarsened BLR continuations increasingly match the posterior-predictive digit distribution as support grows. A frequentist plug-in baseline sharpens the reading: the predictive distributions sit closer to the Bayesian posterior predictive than to the maximum-likelihood plug-in, by a margin largest at small support, where the plug-in is degenerate, and vanishing as the references converge. Position interventions and a from-scratch ablation localize order sensitivity to the positional encoding, activation patching tests causal use of decoded sufficient statistics, and permutation mixtures quantify the downstream log-loss cost of arbitrary orderings. Transformers need not realize exchangeable posterior predictives for every serialization to be Bayes-competitive prequential predictors.