# StellarF: A Physics-Informed LoRA Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting with Historical & Statistical Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.10986 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.10986/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [FITS: Modeling Time Series with 10k Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03756/) (2023)
- [PromptCast: A New Prompt-based Learning Paradigm for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08964/) (2022)
- [LSTPrompt: Large Language Models as Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters by Long-Short-Term Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16132/) (2024)
- [Flare7K: A Phenomenological Nighttime Flare Removal Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06570/) (2022)
- [FLARE: A Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting using Stellar Physical Properties and Historical Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18218/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Stellar flare forecasting represents a critical frontier in astrophysics, offering profound insights into stellar activity mechanisms and exoplanetary habitability assessments. Yet the inherent unpredictability of flare activity, rooted in stellar diversity and evolutionary stages, underpins the field's core challenges: (1) sparse, incomplete, noisy lightcurve data from traditional observations; (2) ineffective multi-scale flare evolution capture via single representations; (3) poor physical interpretability in data-driven models lacking physics-informed priors. To address these challenges, we propose StellarF, a physics-informed framework synergizing general Al with astrophysical domain knowledge via three core components: a unified preprocessing pipeline for lightcurve refinement (missing-value imputation, temporal patch partitioning, adaptive sample filtering); a Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA)-finetuned large language model (LLM) backbone enhanced by first-order difference augmentation, flare statistical information, and flare historical record modules for multimodal fusion instead of only simple representations; and a novel physics-informed loss embedding a minimum rising rate prior, appended to the cross-entropy loss, to align with flare physics. Extensive experiments on Kepler and TESS datasets show StellarF achieves state-of-the-art performance across key metrics, setting new benchmarks for flare forecasting. This work bridges general AI with astrophysics, offering a practical, physically interpretable paradigm for transient event forecasting in time-domain astronomy.