# Humans overrely on overconfident language models, across languages

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06306 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06306/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 26 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 26 of 26)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [How multilingual is Multilingual BERT?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01502/) (2019)
- [How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00955/) (2020)
- [Calibration of Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07892/) (2020)
- [Do Llamas Work in English? On the Latent Language of Multilingual Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10588/) (2024)
- [Selective Question Answering under Domain Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09462/) (2020)
- [Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14983/) (2020)
- [Relying on the Unreliable: The Impact of Language Models' Reluctance to Express Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06730/) (2024)
- [Navigating the Grey Area: How Expressions of Uncertainty and Overconfidence Affect Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13439/) (2023)
- [Do Multilingual LLMs Think In English?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15603/) (2025)
- [Cognitive Dissonance: Why Do Language Model Outputs Disagree with Internal Representations of Truthfulness?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03729/) (2023)
- [How to Adapt Your Pretrained Multilingual Model to 1600 Languages](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02124/) (2021)
- [Should We Respect LLMs? A Cross-Lingual Study on the Influence of Prompt Politeness on LLM Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14531/) (2024)
- [Fostering Appropriate Reliance on Large Language Models: The Role of Explanations, Sources, and Inconsistencies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08554/) (2025)
- [Transfer Learning for Speech and Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06066/) (2015)
- [Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03533/) (2023)
- [A Diachronic Perspective on User Trust in AI under Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.13544/) (2023)
- [Calibrating Structured Output Predictors for Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04361/) (2020)
- [Rel-A.I.: An Interaction-Centered Approach To Measuring Human-LM Reliance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07950/) (2024)
- [LACIE: Listener-Aware Finetuning for Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21028/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.10587/) (2025)
- [When Life Gives You AI, Will You Turn It Into A Market for Lemons? Understanding How Information Asymmetries About AI System Capabilities Affect Market Outcomes and Adoption](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21650/) (2026)
- [Is This Your Final Answer? Cross-Contextual Consistency as a Measure of LLM Credibility](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.10315/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

As large language models (LLMs) are deployed globally, it is crucial that their responses are calibrated across languages to accurately convey uncertainty and limitations. Prior work shows that LLMs are linguistically overconfident in English, leading users to overrely on confident generations. However, the usage and interpretation of epistemic markers (e.g., 'I think it's') differs sharply across languages. Here, we study the risks of multilingual linguistic (mis)calibration, overconfidence, and overreliance across five languages to evaluate LLM safety in a global context. Our work finds that overreliance risks are high across languages. We first analyze the distribution of LLM-generated epistemic markers and observe that LLMs are overconfident across languages, frequently generating strengtheners even as part of incorrect responses. Model generations are, however, sensitive to documented cross-linguistic variation in usage: for example, models generate the most markers of uncertainty in Japanese and the most markers of certainty in German and Mandarin. Next, we measure human reliance rates across languages, finding that reliance behaviors differ cross-linguistically: for example, participants are significantly more likely to discount expressions of uncertainty in Japanese than in English (i.e., ignore their 'hedging' function and rely on generations that contain them). Taken together, these results indicate a high risk of reliance on overconfident model generations across languages. Our findings highlight the challenges of multilingual linguistic calibration and stress the importance of culturally and linguistically contextualized model safety evaluations.