# From Marginal to Joint Predictions: Evaluating Scene-Consistent Trajectory Prediction Approaches for Automated Driving

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.05254 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.05254/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 24 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [PointNet: Deep Learning on Point Sets for 3D Classification and Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00593/) (2016)
- [Fast R-CNN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.08083/) (2015)
- [Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00493/) (2023)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14973/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11624/) (2021)
- [MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16534/) (2023)
- [MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17770/) (2023)
- [Implicit Latent Variable Model for Scene-Consistent Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.12036/) (2020)
- [HDGT: Heterogeneous Driving Graph Transformer for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction via Scene Encoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09753/) (2022)
- [THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06607/) (2021)
- [LookOut: Diverse Multi-Future Prediction and Planning for Self-Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06547/) (2021)
- [M2I: From Factored Marginal Trajectory Prediction to Interactive Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11884/) (2022)
- [Trajeglish: Traffic Modeling as Next-Token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.04535/) (2023)
- [LAformer: Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving with Lane-Aware Scene Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13933/) (2023)
- [Real-Time Motion Prediction via Heterogeneous Polyline Transformer with Relative Pose Encoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.12970/) (2023)
- [The Integration of Prediction and Planning in Deep Learning Automated Driving Systems: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05731/) (2023)
- [SIMPL: A Simple and Efficient Multi-agent Motion Prediction Baseline for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02519/) (2024)
- [Hierarchical Latent Structure for Multi-Modal Vehicle Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.04624/) (2022)
- [SceneMotion: From Agent-Centric Embeddings to Scene-Wide Forecasts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.01537/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate motion prediction of surrounding traffic participants is crucial for the safe and efficient operation of automated vehicles in dynamic environments. Marginal prediction models commonly forecast each agent's future trajectories independently, often leading to sub-optimal planning decisions for an automated vehicle. In contrast, joint prediction models explicitly account for the interactions between agents, yielding socially and physically consistent predictions on a scene level. However, existing approaches differ not only in their problem formulation but also in the model architectures and implementation details used, making it difficult to compare them. In this work, we systematically investigate different approaches to joint motion prediction, including post-processing of the marginal predictions, explicitly training the model for joint predictions, and framing the problem as a generative task. We evaluate each approach in terms of prediction accuracy, multi-modality, and inference efficiency, offering a comprehensive analysis of the strengths and limitations of each approach. Several prediction examples are available at https://frommarginaltojointpred.github.io/.