# MARBLE: A Multi-Agent Rule-Based LLM Reasoning Engine for Accident Severity Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.04893 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.04893/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 21 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jul 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning for agents, planning and code](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-for-agents-planning-and-code/)
- LLM agents and tool use / [Agent threats, guardrails and governance](https://mlsanity.com/agents/agent-threats-guardrails-and-governance/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [Pre-train, Prompt, and Predict: A Systematic Survey of Prompting Methods in Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.13586/) (2021)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Concepts, Taxonomies, Opportunities and Challenges toward Responsible AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10045/) (2019)
- [A Survey on LLM-as-a-Judge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15594/) (2024)
- [Least-to-Most Prompting Enables Complex Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10625/) (2022)
- [HuggingGPT: Solving AI Tasks with ChatGPT and its Friends in Hugging Face](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17580/) (2023)
- [Graph of Thoughts: Solving Elaborate Problems with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09687/) (2023)
- [Tabular Data: Deep Learning is Not All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03253/) (2021)
- [Deep Neural Networks and Tabular Data: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01889/) (2021)
- [Chain of Draft: Thinking Faster by Writing Less](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18600/) (2025)
- [Teaching Small Language Models to Reason](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08410/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithms in Cooperative Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07869/) (2020)
- [Symbolic Chain-of-Thought Distillation: Small Models Can Also "Think" Step-by-Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14050/) (2023)
- [A Countrywide Traffic Accident Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05409/) (2019)
- [Distilling Mathematical Reasoning Capabilities into Small Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.11864/) (2024)
- [Recursive Decomposition of Logical Thoughts: Framework for Superior Reasoning and Knowledge Propagation in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.02026/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accident severity prediction plays a critical role in transportation safety systems but is a persistently difficult task due to incomplete data, strong feature dependencies, and severe class imbalance in which rare but high-severity cases are underrepresented and hard to detect. Existing methods often rely on monolithic models or black box prompting, which struggle to scale in noisy, real-world settings and offer limited interpretability. To address these challenges, we propose MARBLE a multiagent rule based LLM engine that decomposes the severity prediction task across a team of specialized reasoning agents, including an interchangeable ML-backed agent. Each agent focuses on a semantic subset of features (e.g., spatial, environmental, temporal), enabling scoped reasoning and modular prompting without the risk of prompt saturation. Predictions are coordinated through either rule-based or LLM-guided consensus mechanisms that account for class rarity and confidence dynamics. The system retains structured traces of agent-level reasoning and coordination outcomes, supporting in-depth interpretability and post-hoc performance diagnostics. Across both UK and US datasets, MARBLE consistently outperforms traditional machine learning classifiers and state-of-the-art (SOTA) prompt-based reasoning methods including Chain-of-Thought (CoT), Least-to-Most (L2M), and Tree-of-Thought (ToT) achieving nearly 90% accuracy where others plateau below 48%. This performance redefines the practical ceiling for accident severity classification under real world noise and extreme class imbalance. Our results position MARBLE as a generalizable and interpretable framework for reasoning under uncertainty in safety-critical applications.